Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:47:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b49…244f world 410 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$158 (-2%) realized −$34 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%179W / 182L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day27.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$9
14 days+$10
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% −$6
other 14% +$93
sports 10% −$171
crypto 6% +$1
politics 6% +$1
tech 3% +$45
finance 1% −$11
economics 1% +$2
culture 0% +$2
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +32.8% +20.2% 59% 46% -10.5%
≤30d 160 +13.7% +2.9% 52% 38% -9.4%
≤90d 227 +7.5% -2.7% 51% 29% -8.8%
all 361 +4.4% -5.5% 50% 25% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.5% 25% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -14.6% 20% -18.5%
15% -22.8% 17% -26.4%
20% -30.4% 15% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$155
Realized−$34
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses179 / 182
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions50
Markets (closed)361 / 410
History coverage122d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day27.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 50 History 361 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Yes 38¢ 95¢ $4 $10 +$6 (+153%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 88¢ 92¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 71¢ 83¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+18%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 41¢ 56¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+34%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No 76¢ 84¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+10%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 49¢ 48¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 45¢ 42¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-17%)
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Yes 86¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 35¢ 30¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-16%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Yes 39¢ 34¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-14%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 41¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 64¢ 86¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+34%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? No 66¢ 48¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-27%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 75¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 70¢ 69¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 69¢ 68¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 32¢ 32¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No $1 $2 +$1 (+101%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $29 +$4 +14%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 14 $2 $0 +17%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $22 +$5 +25%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +388%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9 +$4 +44%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 +$2 +180%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +50%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 13 $12 −$6 -49%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $14 −$2 -14%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $6 +$3 +54%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $1 +$2 +197%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$1 +30%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +119%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$1 -11%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -31%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +34%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -77%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +20%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $1 +$1 +114%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +114%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 +$1 +108%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $1 +$1 +57%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +63%
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 11 $4 −$3 -67%
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? Jun 11 $6 $0 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $6 −$4 -70%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $10 −$1 -6%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 10 $7 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? Jun 10 $5 $0 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Jun 10 $5 +$7 +161%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $7 −$6 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $2 35m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $9 46m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $4 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 19¢ $1 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 49¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 60¢ $1 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $3 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $2 3h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 45¢ $1 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes $1 4h
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $4 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 42¢ $2 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 98¢ $4 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 85¢ $8 5h
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 49¢ $2 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 51¢ $1 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $1 7h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL No 100¢ $1 8h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 90¢ $1 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 13h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 20¢ $1 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 15h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY No $1 15h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 97¢ $1 15h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $2 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.96 · official $153.80 (match) · 3500 history records