Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:41:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b4a…1462 crypto 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 255d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$65 (-2%) realized −$64 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate83%100W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$8
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$63
other 13% −$12
politics 7% +$1
sports 2% −$7
world 2% +$2
economics 1% +$3
tech 1% +$1
finance 1% +$7
culture 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +4.7% -5.3% 40% 20% -8.9%
≤30d 11 -1.0% -10.5% 64% 27% -9.9%
≤90d 22 -11.9% -20.3% 64% 27% -14.9%
all 121 -8.0% -16.7% 83% 14% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 14% -11.3%
10% -24.7% 4% -19.8%
15% -32.0% 1% -27.5%
20% -38.6% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$64
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses100 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)121 / 134
History coverage255d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $15 $14 −$2 (-10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+43%)
100kt meteor strike in 2026? No 96¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 87¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 84¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 62¢ 57¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 95¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 96¢ 88¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-9%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 73¢ 76¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $29 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $19 $0 +1%
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +24%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 02 $25 +$7 +29%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 02 $9 +$1 +6%
Nexus FDV above $20M one day after launch? May 27 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 19 $11 +$1 +8%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 19 $17 +$3 +19%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 05 $81 +$6 +7%
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) win the most seats in the 20 Apr 18 $2 $0 +2%
Zendaya confirmed pregnant by June 30? Apr 18 $2 $0 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 14 $40 +$2 +6%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 11 $22 −$22 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 11 $9 +$1 +12%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Apr 02 $14 $0 +1%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 02 $13 +$2 +19%
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Mar 30 $6 $0 -6%
Opinion FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Mar 09 $15 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 09 $28 $0 -0%
Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch? Mar 05 $9 +$1 +11%
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 02 $4 +$1 +19%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 28 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Feb 27 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Feb 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Feb 21 $3 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 20 Feb 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 14? Feb 14 $27 +$1 +3%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 14 $17 $0 +1%
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? Feb 11 $5 $0 +7%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Feb 11 $5 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 8? Feb 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 08 $10 $0 +2%
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more? Feb 05 $2 $0 +4%
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more? Feb 05 $2 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 2? Feb 05 $5 $0 +2%
Will "The Rip" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (February 3) Feb 05 $5 +$2 +35%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026 Feb 05 $17 +$1 +3%
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31? Feb 02 $2 $0 +25%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 02 $3 $0 +4%
Will Valve to add first CS2 operation by January 31, 2026? Feb 02 $5 $0 +8%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of January? Feb 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 02 $10 $0 +4%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 2? Jan 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 2? Jan 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 51m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 55m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $5 55m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $5 56m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $5 56m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $6 58m
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $6 1h
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $6 1h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $6 1h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $4 1h
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $4 1h
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $4 1h
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 78¢ $4 1h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 84¢ $8 5d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 95¢ $9 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 81¢ $9 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 12d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 93¢ $6 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY No 94¢ $9 18d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 58¢ $9 19d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 87¢ $14 19d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? SELL No 99¢ $31 19d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 76¢ $6 27d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 27d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 77¢ $19 33d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $7 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.29 · official $31.65 · 355 history records