Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:17:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2B 0x2b4b…3528 sports 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,402 (-12%) realized −$1,045 · open −$357
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%22W / 31L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$441now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$240
7 days+$59
14 days+$750
30 days−$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$1,077
sports 32% −$6
crypto 11% +$409
world 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +63.9% +48.3% 50% 50% -7.4%
≤30d 52 +9.5% -0.9% 42% 42% -11.4%
≤90d 53 +7.4% -2.8% 42% 42% -13.3%
all 53 +7.4% -2.8% 42% 42% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 42% -13.3%
10% -12.1% 36% -21.6%
15% -20.6% 23% -29.1%
20% -28.4% 19% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$93 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$441
Realized−$1,045
Unrealized−$357
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses22 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 87
History coverage240d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 40¢ $788 $431 −$357 (-45%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $56 +$19 +34%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $594 +$110 +19%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $50 +$16 +32%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $514 +$95 +18%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Be Jun 27 $10 +$54 +538%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $82 −$80 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$1 -12%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Cabo Jun 27 $20 +$62 +311%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 26 $10 −$3 -28%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $102 −$51 -50%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $346 −$341 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $41 −$3 -7%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $530 +$236 +44%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Norway win Jun 23 $10 +$57 +553%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 +$47 +93%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $31 +$43 +139%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $500 +$858 +172%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $30 −$29 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $413 −$410 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$6 +11%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 +$134 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $599 +$209 +35%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $102 −$18 -18%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $189 −$187 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $61 −$61 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 15 $121 −$103 -85%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $526 −$338 -64%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $449 −$449 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$4 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$232 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $202 −$100 -50%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $101 +$26 +26%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $30 +$9 +31%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $60 +$143 +238%
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? Jun 09 $15 +$34 +220%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $16 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $794 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance AND Will Germany win on 2026- BUY 46¢ $76 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 100¢ $76 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $261 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 97¢ $253 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 37¢ $190 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $594 8h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 74¢ $56 8h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will Netherlands BUY 5¢ $10 9h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will Netherlands BUY 5¢ $15 10h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance SELL Canada 100¢ $67 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 82¢ $392 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 46¢ $216 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 53¢ $514 26h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 75¢ $50 28h
Spread: England (-2.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-2.5) AND Spread: Portug BUY 8¢ $100 2d
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Colombia BUY 3¢ $30 2d
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 AND Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 AND Panam BUY 18¢ $4 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? AND BUY 9¢ $10 2d
Spread: England (-2.5) AND Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? AND BUY 4¢ $26 2d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Be SELL 99¢ $64 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 13¢ $9 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Cabo SELL 21¢ $82 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 3d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Cabo BUY 5¢ $20 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Will Spain win on BUY 2¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $441.01 · official $515.40 · 160 history records