Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:40:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
2B 0x2b4c…f1cc sports 139 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,123 (+85%) realized +$1,101 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate68%84W / 39L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$36
14 days+$25
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% +$20
sports 27% +$2,588
other 3% +$25
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +16.8% +5.6% 73% 56% -5.4%
≤30d 52 +1.0% -8.6% 63% 48% -6.7%
≤90d 123 +23.5% +11.8% 68% 52% +188.2%
all 123 +23.5% +11.8% 68% 52% +188.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.8% 52% +188.2%
10% +1.1% 43% +160.6%
15% -8.7% 39% +135.4%
20% -17.7% 37% +112.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +218% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +218% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$7 · ×5.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.14 per $1 lost it wins $11.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$1,101
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses84 / 39
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions17
Markets (closed)123 / 139
History coverage48d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Up 0¢ 52¢ $0 $21 +$21 (+0%)
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla Chun-Hsin Tseng 58¢ 72¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+23%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 47¢ 64¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+35%)
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers SSG Landers 54¢ 60¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Nikola Bartunkova 31¢ 56¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+82%)
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery Sachia Vickery 33¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Federico Bondioli Federico Bondioli 38¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Florian Broska Florian Broska 29¢ 36¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+24%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 63¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Luisina Giovannini Luisina Giovannini 60¢ 98¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+62%)
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Yulia Starodubtseva 34¢ 34¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Stefano Travaglia 44¢ 30¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-31%)
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Zizou Bergs 22¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Laslo Djere 84¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Anastasiia Sobolieva 31¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot Daniel Jade 52¢ 16¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$2 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $62 +$30 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$11 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $42 +$26 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$34 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $137 +$12 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$18 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $39 +$20 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $73 +$90 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $73 −$5 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Amer Sports (AS) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 17 $1 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 17 $1 $0 +11%
LoL: RED Canids vs Leviatan Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Am Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
Counter-Strike: Abyssal vs Ding Cuts (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Grou Jun 17 $1 $0 -5%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 17 $1 $0 +26%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifi Jun 17 $1 $0 +31%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Grou Jun 17 $1 +$1 +70%
Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs VENOM ESPOR (BO3) - TESFED League Jun 17 $1 +$1 +86%
Dota 2: summer bear vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 17 $1 +$1 +83%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualif Jun 17 $1 +$1 +76%
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Series Jun 17 $1 +$1 +83%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $2 +$1 +62%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $2 +$2 +70%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $2 +$2 +67%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 17 $2 +$2 +105%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 17 $2 +$3 +165%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $21 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $16 2m
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Anastasiia Sobolieva 31¢ $1 4m
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 34¢ $2 5m
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery BUY Sachia Vickery 33¢ $2 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $22 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $21 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $4 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $4 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $15 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 35m
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 31¢ $1 41m
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 47¢ $2 41m
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Luisina Giovannini BUY Luisina Giovannini 60¢ $1 41m
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 84¢ $1 41m
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 38¢ $2 42m
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 22¢ $1 42m
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Florian Broska BUY Florian Broska 29¢ $1 42m
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot BUY Daniel Jade 52¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $92 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $32 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $21 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $42 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $21 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $26 49m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.67 · official $47.35 · 265 history records