Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:44:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2B 0x2b51…e165 sports 583 markets active 1h ago coverage 382d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 382d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8,620 (+1%) realized +$7,599 · open +$1,021
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%312W / 260L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,628per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$3,827est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$33,246now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 382d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$26,841
other 26% +$8,601
tech 2% +$1,383
world 1% +$1,888
politics 1% −$598
crypto 0% +$1,273
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +17.3% +6.1% 56% 52% +60.2%
≤30d 42 +6.8% -3.4% 43% 40% +19.9%
≤90d 57 -7.1% -15.9% 39% 37% +11.8%
all 572 -3.5% -12.7% 55% 53% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 53% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 45% -19.3%
15% -28.7% 34% -27.1%
20% -35.7% 26% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$1,701) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$831 vs −$1,056 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

382d coverage
Net worth$33,246
Realized+$7,599
Unrealized+$1,021
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses312 / 260
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$3,827
Open positions11
Markets (closed)572 / 583
History coverage382d ⚠
Avg bet$1,628
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 572 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 78¢ $6,600 $7,750 +$1,150 (+17%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $7,100 $7,250 +$150 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $4,800 $5,535 +$735 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $4,621 $3,998 −$623 (-13%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 69¢ $3,129 $2,987 −$142 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $1,815 $1,716 −$99 (-5%)
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1,645 $1,584 −$61 (-4%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $1,080 $1,058 −$22 (-2%)
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $890 $837 −$53 (-6%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $284 $276 −$8 (-3%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $260 $255 −$5 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 253 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11,040 +$126 +1%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4,122 +$878 +21%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4,318 +$682 +16%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $310 +$290 +93%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $617 −$610 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $557 −$550 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $338 +$162 +48%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $4,130 +$3,472 +84%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $358 +$242 +67%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $114 +$286 +250%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $730 −$724 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $133 −$11 -8%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $6,641 +$33,268 +501%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7,545 +$1,455 +19%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 13 $360 −$351 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $268 −$264 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 13 $287 −$280 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 13 $673 −$660 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1,752 −$1,730 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $254 +$246 +97%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $1,994 +$1,571 +79%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $1,769 +$416 +24%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $249 −$245 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $250 +$350 +140%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $269 −$265 -99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 09 $11,172 −$151 -1%
Will SpaceX raise between $60B and $70B in its IPO? Jun 08 $13 −$13 -96%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 08 $2,352 −$484 -21%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 07 $487 −$480 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $20,322 +$4,552 +22%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,387 +$2,613 +188%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $4,692 −$4,692 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 30 $83,799 −$1,133 -1%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $3,378 −$1,800 -53%
NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Spurs Total Games O/U 5.5 May 24 $534 −$523 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $387 −$380 -98%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $814 −$800 -98%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 23 $2,809 −$2,793 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 22 $418 +$2,367 +566%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $5,471 −$3,001 -55%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 21 $6,332 +$2,657 +42%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 19 $553 −$545 -99%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 17 $6,569 −$741 -11%
NBA Playoffs: Spurs vs. Timberwolves Total Games O/U 5.5 May 16 $1,403 +$1,205 +86%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 13 $1,358 −$1,321 -97%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 13 $627 −$620 -99%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 11 $542 −$533 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 09 $249 −$245 -98%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 08 $1,351 +$1,952 +144%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $3,396 −$3,301 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $363 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $266 1h
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $175 1h
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $140 1h
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $83 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $726 31h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $6,667 31h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 87¢ $8,666 31h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 82¢ $4,122 47h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 86¢ $4,318 47h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $3,155 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $617 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $11,040 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $557 2d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $156 2d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $16 2d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $1,665 2d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $8 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $7,162 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 72¢ $73 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 72¢ $363 3d
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY No 67¢ $338 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $114 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 25¢ $122 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 73¢ $294 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 83¢ $7,545 3d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $41 4d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $319 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $310 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33,245.55 · official $33,245.98 (match) · 3500 history records