Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:10:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2B 0x2b53…eb97 sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,876 (+94%) realized +$2,877 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate86%12W / 2L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$57
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$2,879
crypto 0% −$5
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -29.0% -35.7% 50% 25% +30.4%
≤90d 8 -1.0% -10.4% 75% 25% +79.0%
all 14 +0.6% -9.0% 86% 14% +78.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 14% +78.6%
10% -17.7% 14% +61.5%
15% -25.6% 14% +45.9%
20% -32.9% 14% +31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +98% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +97% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$242 vs −$12 · ×19.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×116.01 per $1 lost it wins $116.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$2,877
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses12 / 2
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage172d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 52¢ 52¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 Jun 08 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026? Jun 08 $4 $0 +2%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 08 $100 +$81 +82%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) Mar 26 $2,800 +$2,818 +101%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026? Mar 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 25 $3 $0 +3%
Will another country strike Iran by March 7? Mar 25 $4 $0 +4%
LoL: eSuba vs Priority (BO5) - Hitpoint Masters Playoffs Mar 07 $5 $0 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? Mar 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on January 1? Feb 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? Feb 23 $1 $0 +0%
Sentient FDV above $200M one day after launch? Feb 23 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 22? Feb 23 $1 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.04 · official $99.04 (match) · 27 history records