Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:16:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b55…5822 crypto 1186 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (123 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,181 (+76%) realized +$3,181 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate39%460W / 726L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day123.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$128
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (123 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 458 -2.8% -12.1% 49% 38% -10.2%
≤30d 1186 -11.1% -19.6% 39% 34% -12.3%
≤90d 1186 -11.1% -19.6% 39% 34% -12.3%
all 1186 -11.1% -19.6% 39% 34% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover123.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.6% 34% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -27.3% 29% -20.7%
15% -34.3% 25% -28.4%
20% -40.7% 20% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,181
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses460 / 726
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1186 / 1186
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day123.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1186 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$3 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$5 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$8 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records