Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:24:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2B
0x2b56…d1e1
sports · 635 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$234 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$243 · open +$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$394
Realized−$243
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses428 / 184
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions27
Markets (closed)612 / 635
History coverage182d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 27 History 612 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$85
14 days+$244
30 days+$244
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 62¢ $66 $75 +$9 (+14%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 88¢ 89¢ $53 $54 +$1 (+1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $52 $51 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? No 90¢ 89¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Yes 91¢ 95¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 78¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? No 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 83¢ 72¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 56¢ 55¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 50¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 57¢ 58¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Spirit 85¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Aston Villa vs. Arsenal end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sutton United FC win on 2025-12-06? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-06? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will AVS Futebol vs. Rio Ave FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) Jun 12 $45 +$1 +2%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $107 +$18 +17%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $3 $0 +14%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $46 +$10 +23%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $12 +$1 +12%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 11 $2 $0 -4%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $10 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$1 +8%
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Arklon Del Pino Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Counter-Strike: DXA Esports vs Masked Regime (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 11 $1 $0 +23%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs XI Esport (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe P Jun 10 $1 $0 +31%
Counter-Strike: Wingman vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 10 $1 $0 +34%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +65%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $100 +$1 +1%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $1 $0 -16%
Ilkley: Iryna Shymanovich vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 10 $1 $0 +23%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Paul Jubb Jun 10 $1 $0 +26%
Ilkley: Taylah Preston vs Harmony Tan Jun 10 $1 $0 +32%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $1 $0 +40%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $64 +$15 +23%
Ilkley: Mimi Xu vs Elizabeth Mandlik Jun 10 $87 +$4 +5%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 10 $1 $0 +46%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2 $0 +18%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Tucuman: Karim Bennani vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 09 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 $0 +4%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Liberia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $53 +$3 +6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: Abyssal vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Group Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $1 +$1 +70%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $2 +$1 +45%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 09 $3 +$1 +26%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $36 +$7 +18%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Jun 09 $1 $0 +27%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $40 +$3 +6%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 09 $43 +$6 +13%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 75% −$1,979
other 20% +$761
tech 2% +$1,182
world 2% −$122
culture 0% −$13
crypto 0% −$38
politics 0% −$17
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 85¢ $1 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 8h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $3 8h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) BUY Bigetron by Vitality 98¢ $5 8h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY No 66¢ $1 8h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 8h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 8h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) BUY Bigetron by Vitality 98¢ $40 8h
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 82¢ $1 8h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 8h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 8h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 8h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 8h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 13h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Czechia 92¢ $2 13h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 16h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Czechia 85¢ $5 16h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 16h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 87¢ $2 16h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Czechia 85¢ $10 16h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 16h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 16h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 89¢ $1 16h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Czechia 85¢ $30 16h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 17h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $5 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 -2.6% -11.9% 75% 54% -4.4%
≤30d 108 -1.8% -11.1% 75% 55% +3.6%
≤90d 141 -2.3% -11.6% 75% 53% +1.6%
all 612 +0.9% -8.7% 70% 52% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 52% -10.1%
10% -17.5% 33% -18.7%
15% -25.4% 21% -26.6%
20% -32.8% 12% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $394.18 · official $394.19 (match) · 3500 history records