Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:27:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2B 0x2b57…51f1 crypto 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$91 (-21%) realized −$65 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$8
crypto 27% −$108
politics 23% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -6.6% -15.5% 67% 50% -32.4%
≤30d 6 -6.6% -15.5% 67% 50% -32.4%
≤90d 6 -6.6% -15.5% 67% 50% -32.4%
all 6 -6.6% -15.5% 67% 50% -32.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 50% -32.4%
10% -23.6% 33% -38.9%
15% -31.0% 33% -44.8%
20% -37.7% 17% -50.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$55 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$65
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage3d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 52¢ $110 $84 −$26 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $107 −$107 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $99 +$9 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 35m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 82¢ $120 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $103 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $3 7h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 98¢ $109 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 89¢ $99 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.52 · official $85.14 · 16 history records