Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:50:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2B 0x2b59…af90 sports 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-1%) realized −$33 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%22W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$484
7 days+$113
14 days+$157
30 days+$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$301
sports 43% +$554
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.0% -9.5% 51% 51% -6.4%
≤30d 36 +6.2% -3.9% 53% 53% -5.4%
≤90d 39 +15.2% +4.2% 56% 56% -2.1%
all 44 +2.1% -7.6% 50% 50% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 50% -3.4%
10% -16.5% 48% -12.6%
15% -24.5% 45% -21.1%
20% -31.9% 39% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$72 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses22 / 22
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage233d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 +$161 +79%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $101 +$26 +26%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 +$139 +272%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 −$127 -63%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$98 +97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 +$165 +54%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$96 +48%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $202 +$103 +51%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $80 −$78 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$39 -77%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$27 +53%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $302 −$300 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $102 −$48 -47%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $202 −$51 -25%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $228 −$223 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $203 +$155 +76%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$84 -83%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $102 +$123 +121%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$57 -56%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $51 +$43 +84%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $101 +$47 +46%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $41 +$63 +156%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $287 +$121 +42%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $20 +$44 +223%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $165 +$102 +62%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 21 $75 +$12 +16%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 21 $19 +$55 +291%
Sentient FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 02 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $79 −$32 -41%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) Oct 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 40m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 40m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $363 56m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $127 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 78¢ $101 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $190 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $51 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 47¢ $72 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $152 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $298 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 29h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $305 29h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 65¢ $202 31h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 2¢ $3 31h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 16¢ $26 31h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 35¢ $25 32h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 29¢ $26 32h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 10¢ $12 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $78 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $82 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.40 · official $69.40 (match) · 97 history records