Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:06:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2B 0x2b5a…2e45 other 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,368 (+5%) realized +$2,374 · open −$1,006
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate49%36W / 37L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$308per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$3,923now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$370
7 days+$331
14 days+$320
30 days+$844
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$2,582
politics 22% +$3,360
finance 20% +$802
world 18% −$977
economics 5% +$618
sports 0% +$22
tech 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +21.8% +10.2% 80% 80% +7.7%
≤30d 8 +30.1% +17.7% 75% 62% +21.3%
≤90d 32 -38.8% -44.6% 38% 31% -11.6%
all 73 -9.3% -17.9% 49% 37% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 37% +0.2%
10% -25.8% 29% -9.4%
15% -32.9% 19% -18.2%
20% -39.5% 15% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +24% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$220 vs −$154 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$3,923
Realized+$2,374
Unrealized−$1,006
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses36 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Open positions11
Markets (closed)73 / 84
History coverage153d
Avg bet$308
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $2,363 $2,242 −$121 (-5%)
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? Yes 78¢ 100¢ $400 $512 +$112 (+28%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 65¢ 96¢ $300 $444 +$144 (+48%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 45¢ 40¢ $361 $328 −$33 (-9%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $200 $172 −$28 (-14%)
Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? No 75¢ 88¢ $96 $113 +$17 (+17%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-15%)
Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? No 58¢ 96¢ $20 $33 +$13 (+65%)
Weed rescheduled by June 30? Yes 55¢ 1¢ $1,104 $18 −$1,086 (-98%)
Will Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? No 85¢ 95¢ $14 $15 +$2 (+12%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $21 $4 −$17 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? Jun 22 $13 +$4 +30%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $543 +$256 +47%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $490 +$110 +22%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $497 −$96 -19%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $202 +$58 +29%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 12 $100 −$11 -11%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 27 $374 +$498 +133%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 27 $263 +$26 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 17 $231 +$69 +30%
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2026? May 12 $7 $0 -6%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $528 −$514 -97%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 12 $205 −$199 -97%
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting? Apr 30 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 24 $150 +$29 +19%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? Apr 23 $95 −$95 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $500 +$485 +97%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president Apr 23 $798 −$798 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $44 −$44 -100%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 Apr 17 $61 −$61 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026? Apr 17 $41 +$4 +10%
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? Apr 16 $151 −$151 -100%
Bank of England increases interest rates after April 2026 meeting? Apr 16 $115 −$115 -100%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? Apr 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? Apr 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $173 −$173 -100%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Robinhood launches prediction market through MIAXdx by March 31? Apr 11 $242 −$242 -100%
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? Apr 11 $300 −$300 -100%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? Apr 11 $148 −$148 -100%
Will Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) be added to the S&P 500 by March 3 Apr 02 $2,084 +$377 +18%
Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 202 Apr 02 $2,214 +$1,158 +52%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 16 $1,864 +$2,082 +112%
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 7, 2026? Mar 09 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Vertiv Holdings (VRT) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026? Mar 09 $761 −$761 -100%
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? Mar 09 $738 −$738 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Mar 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Italy win? Mar 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 3, 2026? Mar 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Mar 07 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese Mar 07 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Mar 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility? Mar 07 $472 −$472 -100%
Will Affirm Holdings (AFRM) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026? Mar 06 $154 +$23 +15%
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? Mar 05 $200 +$20 +10%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 05 $100 +$22 +22%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 03 $300 −$19 -6%
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility? Mar 02 $50 $0 +0%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? Mar 02 $62 −$9 -15%
DeepSeek V4 released by February 28? Mar 02 $16 +$25 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? SELL Yes 51¢ $17 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 34¢ $580 1h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $799 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $599 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 33¢ $505 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 35¢ $56 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 35¢ $43 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $490 3h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 43¢ $22 3h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 43¢ $278 3h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 39¢ $29 3h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 38¢ $841 3h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 39¢ $32 3h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $310 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $382 3d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 46¢ $272 3d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 56¢ $62 3d
Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership BUY No 53¢ $8 3d
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $13 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 6d
Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership elect BUY No 75¢ $97 6d
Will Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership el BUY No 85¢ $14 6d
Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership BUY No 63¢ $12 6d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 65¢ $304 6d
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 77¢ $202 6d
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? BUY Yes 78¢ $404 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 39¢ $89 9d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 44¢ $100 10d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 28¢ $206 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,922.56 · official $3,923.21 (match) · 320 history records