Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:29:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2B 0x2b5e…6b43 crypto 1009 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$120 (-1%) realized −$120 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate75%753W / 256L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$16
14 days+$27
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$138
other 1% −$16
sports 0% −$2
culture 0% +$17
politics 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 47 +1.1% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 188 +1.1% -8.5% 98% 3% -9.2%
all 1009 -6.2% -15.1% 75% 32% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 32% -11.1%
10% -23.2% 18% -19.6%
15% -30.6% 10% -27.4%
20% -37.4% 6% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$120
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses753 / 256
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1009 / 1009
History coverage141d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1009 Trades
no open positions (214 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $79 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $79 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $78 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $77 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $76 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $76 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $75 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $74 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $74 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $73 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $72 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $71 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $71 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $70 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $69 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $69 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $68 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $68 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $67 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $66 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $66 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $65 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 11 $64 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $64 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 10 $63 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 10 $63 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 10 $62 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $58 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 09 $58 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 09 $57 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 08 $57 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 08 $56 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 08 $56 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 08 $55 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 07 $55 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 07 $54 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 07 $53 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 06 $53 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 06 $53 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 25 $52 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 24 $52 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 24 $51 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 24 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 24 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 24 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 23 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 13 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 13 $48 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 13 $48 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $79 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $76 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $76 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $17 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $58 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $74 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $74 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $73 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $72 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $71 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $71 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $70 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $69 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $69 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $68 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $68 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $67 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $66 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $66 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $65 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $64 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $64 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $63 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $63 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $62 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $58 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2541 history records