Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:45:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2B 0x2b5f…7750 other 223 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,219 (+22%) realized +$1,243 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%42W / 104L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$80est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$79
7 days+$1,088
14 days+$1,481
30 days+$2,171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$1,896
other 44% +$153
world 2% +$115
crypto 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 +3.2% -6.6% 28% 28% +43.0%
≤30d 146 +0.8% -8.8% 29% 29% +37.7%
≤90d 146 +0.8% -8.8% 29% 29% +37.7%
all 146 +0.8% -8.8% 29% 29% +37.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 29% +37.7%
10% -17.5% 28% +24.5%
15% -25.5% 28% +12.5%
20% -32.8% 27% +1.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$16 · ×5.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.27 per $1 lost it wins $2.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$1,243
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses42 / 104
Est. fees paid−$80
Open positions7
Markets (closed)146 / 223
History coverage28d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $31 $24 −$7 (-21%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+35%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-33%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-36%)
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 12¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-37%)
Exact Score: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 3 - 0 Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 102 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $102 +$57 +56%
Exact Score: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 1 - 0 Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC? Jun 27 $13 +$12 +91%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26 Jun 27 $84 +$122 +146%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 26 $43 −$42 -98%
Exact Score: Paraguay 3 - 3 Australia? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $33 +$88 +268%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $67 −$65 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $67 −$66 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2 Jun 25 $41 +$18 +43%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) AND Sp Jun 24 $51 +$127 +247%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 24 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $132 +$180 +136%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Canada? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners AND Will Colombia win on Jun 24 $51 +$42 +83%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $67 +$94 +140%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $55 +$63 +114%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $1 +$1 +65%
João Félix: 1+ goals Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $51 +$141 +276%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $98 +$149 +152%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $5 +$28 +550%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $13 −$13 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $164 +$34 +21%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 7.5 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $13 −$13 -97%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? AND Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Ve Jun 22 $31 +$182 +591%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $5 +$135 +2633%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC end in a draw BUY Yes 19¢ $7 14m
Exact Score: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 3 - 0 Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 29m
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 75¢ $54 33m
Exact Score: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 1 - 0 Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC? SELL Yes 34¢ $25 33m
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 75¢ $104 35m
Exact Score: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 1 - 0 Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC? BUY Yes 17¢ $13 1h
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26 BUY 40¢ $84 15h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Cabo BUY 6¢ $13 16h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? AND Exact Score: Uruguay 1 BUY 2¢ $5 16h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 2¢ $20 29h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will New Z BUY 5¢ $50 29h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Belgium (-2.5) AND Will Uruguay win BUY 8¢ $13 29h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26 BUY 1¢ $5 29h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 1¢ $10 29h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 14¢ $43 36h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 0¢ $3 36h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) AND Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY 1¢ $13 36h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 AND Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY 4¢ $10 36h
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Australia? AND Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 3 BUY 1¢ $6 36h
Exact Score: Paraguay 3 - 3 Australia? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 36h
Exact Score: Paraguay 2 - 2 Australia? AND Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 BUY 1¢ $5 36h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) AND Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY 2¢ $13 36h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2. BUY 7¢ $20 39h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 39h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 29¢ $67 39h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Wil BUY 2¢ $13 39h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 40h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 78¢ $100 40h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $33 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.72 · official $64.27 (match) · 327 history records