Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:45:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b61…a6dd world 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 289d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$54 (-1%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%26W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$56
other 31% +$2
politics 15% −$3
culture 7% +$2
sports 5% −$1
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.6% -11.0% 0% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 28 -0.7% -10.1% 14% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 39 -0.4% -9.9% 26% 0% -10.5%
all 91 -0.2% -9.7% 29% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -10.2%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

289d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses26 / 65
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)91 / 92
History coverage289d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 85¢ 84¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $49 −$4 -8%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $53 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $13 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $54 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $19 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $73 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $15 +$1 +8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $120 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $32 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $216 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $52 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $61 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $54 −$1 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $158 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $121 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $49 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $52 +$1 +1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $24 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $58 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $58 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $79 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $685 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $178 −$42 -24%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $58 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $26 +$1 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $46 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $47 −$2 -4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $20 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 12 $178 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $1,250 +$2 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $19 +$1 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $226 −$9 -4%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $169 −$4 -2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $634 +$1 +0%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 10 $219 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 09 $220 −$2 -1%
Will Delroy Lindo win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 09 $220 +$1 +0%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 07 $207 −$2 -1%
Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Mar 07 $46 +$1 +3%
Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic a Oct 06 $7 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 06 $3 $0 -14%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 06 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 04 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $50 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 44¢ $45 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $49 4h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $53 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $53 27h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $13 32h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $13 35h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $54 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $54 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $54 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $53 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 27¢ $1 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $17 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $19 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $17 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $17 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $7 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $47 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $53 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $1 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $16 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $15 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $20 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $20 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $47 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $6 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $53 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $2 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $30 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $9 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.85 · official $49.85 (match) · 334 history records