Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:49:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2B 0x2b61…c97f sports 217 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$58 (+1%) realized +$36 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate42%88W / 124L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days−$35
14 days−$392
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$78
other 9% +$61
crypto 3% −$46
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -19.5% -27.2% 24% 21% -13.4%
≤30d 102 -19.0% -26.7% 29% 27% -14.5%
≤90d 212 -13.8% -22.0% 42% 32% -10.6%
all 212 -13.8% -22.0% 42% 32% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 32% -10.6%
10% -29.5% 26% -19.1%
15% -36.3% 22% -26.9%
20% -42.5% 17% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$11 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses88 / 124
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions5
Markets (closed)212 / 217
History coverage51d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 212 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Japan 17¢ 16¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 8¢ 26¢ $11 $36 +$25 (+225%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 90 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $1 +$7 +712%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 +$3 +60%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $15 +$12 +77%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 19 $2 $0 -12%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Mexico to win the second half? Jun 19 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $36 −$17 -49%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$17 +57%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 +$80 +262%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$35 +140%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3 +$4 +140%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$5 +442%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
DR Congo to score first vs. Portugal? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $19 −$7 -37%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -5%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$1 -6%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 $0 -9%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 $0 -5%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 −$3 -62%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -19%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 -5%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $96 −$2 -3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $96 −$84 -88%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $32 +$36 +113%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $18 −$2 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $41 57m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $41 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 15¢ $46 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 17¢ $41 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 14h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 14h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 88¢ $8 14h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 62¢ $27 14h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $15 23h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 23h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 23h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 23h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 25h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 25h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 38h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 38h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 38h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 38h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 38h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 38h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 38h
Mexico to win the second half? SELL Yes 40¢ $8 38h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 38h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.96 · official $158.97 (match) · 784 history records