Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:24:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b63…e4b1 other 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$34 (-1%) realized −$41 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate38%17W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$367now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$5
tech 21% −$19
crypto 7% −$13
economics 5% −$8
politics 2% +$1
world 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 -17.8% -25.6% 18% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 18 -27.7% -34.6% 22% 0% -11.4%
all 45 -13.7% -21.9% 38% 2% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 2% -10.9%
10% -29.4% 0% -19.4%
15% -36.2% 0% -27.2%
20% -42.5% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$367
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses17 / 28
Open positions7
Markets (closed)45 / 52
History coverage226d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $303 $303 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $27 $35 +$8 (+28%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $300 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $300 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $320 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 01 $14 $0 -2%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $300 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 29 $3 −$1 -29%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 29 $60 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 25 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 25 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $64 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $1 $0 -2%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana dip to $20 in March? Apr 07 $68 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 24 $67 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? Mar 09 $78 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Feb 24 $10 −$4 -39%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Feb 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Feb 24 $60 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 09 $60 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $97 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Jan 26 $2 −$1 -52%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 26 $90 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Jan 16 $16 −$8 -48%
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 16 $90 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 12 $92 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 06 $92 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Januar Jan 06 $92 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 03 $60 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 03 $32 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Jan 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 03 $80 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Jan 03 $30 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 30 $14 +$1 +9%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 30 $80 $0 +0%
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic aft Nov 25 $1 $0 -10%
Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Nov 25 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 25 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 10? Nov 13 $1 $0 +1%
Wizards vs. Pistons Nov 13 $1 $0 +16%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30? Nov 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 8? Nov 10 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $303 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $302 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $315 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $310 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $320 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $300 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $300 3d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $300 3d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $300 17d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $320 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $2 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 21d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $320 21d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $299 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $1 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 23d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $300 23d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 23d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 SELL No 100¢ $44 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $367.16 · official $367.16 (match) · 234 history records