Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:15:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
2B 0x2b67…b814 world 80 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover
! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$36,645 (+29%) realized +$32,284 · open +$4,361
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate53%35W / 31L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,577per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$24,404now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9,789
7 days+$7,997
14 days+$8,599
30 days+$3,371
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$3,471
other 35% +$5,804
tech 18% +$272
finance 6% −$3,379
sports 2% +$1,377
crypto 0% −$45
politics 0% +$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +22.4% +10.7% 65% 38% +4.8%
≤30d 63 +33.7% +21.0% 52% 33% -3.8%
≤90d 66 +33.8% +21.1% 53% 33% -4.9%
all 66 +33.8% +21.1% 53% 33% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.1% 33% -4.9%
10% +9.5% 26% -14.0%
15% ← realistic here -1.1% 23% -22.3%
20% -10.8% 20% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$1,350) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +43% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$500 vs −$462 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$24,404
Realized+$32,284
Unrealized+$4,361
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses35 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions14
Markets (closed)66 / 80
History coverage36d
Avg bet$1,577
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? Yes 32¢ 81¢ $2,061 $5,192 +$3,131 (+152%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $4,980 $4,992 +$12 (+0%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 65¢ 60¢ $3,235 $3,025 −$210 (-6%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $2,700 $2,605 −$95 (-4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 9¢ 99¢ $172 $1,829 +$1,657 (+963%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $1,760 $1,784 +$24 (+1%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 19, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1,344 $1,352 +$8 (+1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1,170 $1,135 −$35 (-3%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Yes 79¢ 92¢ $790 $915 +$125 (+16%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 72¢ 66¢ $721 $655 −$66 (-9%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 72¢ 100¢ $360 $498 +$138 (+38%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Yes 61¢ 36¢ $509 $295 −$214 (-42%)
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Yes 32¢ 19¢ $197 $118 −$79 (-40%)
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $43 $8 −$35 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $246 $0 +0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $6,930 +$118 +2%
Grok 4.4 released by June 15? Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $8,396 +$34 +0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 15 $8,980 +$1,483 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $7,812 +$6,945 +89%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $792 +$1,208 +152%
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam? Jun 13 $30 +$68 +227%
Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Jun 13 $1,148 +$61 +5%
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Jun 13 $218 +$277 +127%
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Jun 13 $6 +$10 +179%
Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Jun 13 $500 +$426 +85%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $1,875 −$1,307 -70%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $468 +$116 +25%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 12 $255 −$64 -25%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $474 +$192 +41%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $2,098 −$592 -28%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 12 $1,637 −$609 -37%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1,313 −$807 -61%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $761 +$80 +10%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $1,483 −$110 -7%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $316 −$264 -84%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $5 −$2 -42%
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? Jun 10 $86 −$23 -27%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5,445 +$756 +14%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 09 $28 +$2 +7%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $216 +$884 +410%
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? Jun 08 $120 −$82 -68%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 07 $435 −$42 -10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 07 $17 −$2 -11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 07 $30 −$12 -41%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 07 $230 −$47 -20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 07 $300 −$52 -17%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $138 −$45 -33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $1,113 −$1,113 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $1,011 +$128 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $16 −$16 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $659 +$196 +30%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? May 28 $540 −$120 -22%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $242 +$91 +38%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $2,044 +$156 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 25 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 25 $546 −$305 -56%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? May 25 $539 −$524 -97%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $1,929 −$454 -24%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 24 $2,410 −$1,969 -82%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $2,169 −$2,169 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 24 $380 +$119 +31%
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the May 23 $6,460 −$297 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 63¢ $47 2m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 63¢ $383 8m
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $2,700 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 68¢ $680 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $805 8h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $495 8h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $99 8h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $99 8h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $277 8h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $990 8h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $987 8h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 9h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $2,175 9h
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $197 10h
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? BUY Yes 76¢ $466 11h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $885 13h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $285 13h
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,191 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $1,625 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $101 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $23 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $9 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $533 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $294 15h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 90¢ $972 15h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $246 15h
Grok 4.4 released by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $25 15h
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5,205 17h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 19, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1,347 17h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24,403.52 · official $24,159.16 · 783 history records