trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | -7.7% | -16.5% | 43% | 14% | -39.7% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -6.8% | -15.7% | 38% | 12% | -31.4% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -12.9% | -21.2% | 45% | 9% | -31.5% |
| all | 11 | -12.9% | -21.2% | 45% | 9% | -31.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -21.2% | 9% | -31.5% |
| 10% | -28.8% | 0% | -38.1% |
| 15% | -35.6% | 0% | -44.0% |
| 20% | -42.0% | 0% | -49.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 85¢ | 84¢ | $79 | $78 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $43 | $43 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | No | 87¢ | 88¢ | $37 | $38 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? | Jun 17 | $2 | $0 | +16% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 17 | $127 | −$84 | -66% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 17 | $1 | $0 | -5% |
| Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Jun 17 | $1 | $0 | +10% |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 17 | $30 | −$4 | -13% |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | Jun 17 | $100 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? | Jun 17 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | May 22 | $100 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 13 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of February? | May 13 | $1 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February? | May 13 | $1 | $0 | +7% |