Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:58:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b6a…96a3 sports 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 667d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$305 (-4%) realized −$348 · open +$43
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate64%39W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$242now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$128
7 days−$152
14 days−$152
30 days−$211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 69% +$22
sports 14% −$286
other 13% +$126
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -19.4% -27.1% 62% 38% -23.7%
≤30d 33 -15.3% -23.4% 70% 24% -27.1%
≤90d 33 -15.3% -23.4% 70% 24% -27.1%
all 61 -7.7% -16.5% 64% 15% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 15% -12.0%
10% -24.5% 11% -20.4%
15% -31.8% 11% -28.1%
20% -38.5% 7% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$28 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

667d coverage
Net worth$242
Realized−$348
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses39 / 22
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)61 / 64
History coverage667d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Over 61¢ 100¢ $98 $160 +$62 (+64%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 78¢ 64¢ $101 $83 −$19 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 +$22 +43%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $65 +$35 +54%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $175 +$128 +73%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $52 −$51 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $52 +$28 +54%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $41 −$40 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $35 +$7 +20%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $9 +$5 +49%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $53 +$27 +51%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $67 +$32 +48%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 20 $81 −$81 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 20 $88 −$88 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 Jun 20 $99 −$99 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on I Jun 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $600B and $700B at market close on Jun 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $500B and $600B at market close on Jun 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day Jun 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on May 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on May 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 30? Jun 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 30? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 16-22? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 March 16-22? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 16-22? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 16-22? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 March 16-22? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 23 $125 $0 +0%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Mar 22 $2 $0 +3%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? Mar 22 $3 $0 +0%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? Mar 22 $3 $0 +2%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 03 $109 +$22 +20%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,300 on October 15? Nov 22 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,400 on October 15? Nov 22 $3 $0 +0%
Will Mistral AI have the second best AI model on October 31? Nov 22 $7 $0 +1%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 17 $105 $0 -0%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? Oct 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? Oct 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will Scott Stringer win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C May 14 $22 $0 +0%
Will Feyenoord win the UEFA Champions League? May 09 $10 $0 +0%
Solana ETF approved in 2024? May 09 $52 +$1 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2024? May 09 $54 +$1 +2%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Dec 21 $190 +$6 +3%
Will someone else be inaugurated? Dec 21 $320 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $99 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 3h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Qatar 55¢ $1 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $65 20h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 57¢ $175 25h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $51 30h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $1 30h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $52 43h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 40¢ $41 44h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 83¢ $35 45h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $24 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $51 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 62¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 49¢ $128 3d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 67¢ $9 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $80 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $53 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $67 4d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $42 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 BUY Over 60¢ $99 19d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 55¢ $81 19d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 56¢ $88 21d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 95¢ $59 25d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $5 25d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 25d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $3 25d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $42 25d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $2 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $242.47 · official $242.47 (match) · 449 history records