Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:43:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2B 0x2b6c…b437 world 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$81 (-2%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$353per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$48
14 days+$48
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$47
other 23% −$8
politics 13% −$1
sports 10% −$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +27.8% +15.6% 25% 25% -5.2%
≤30d 10 +8.7% -1.7% 20% 10% -10.4%
≤90d 10 +8.7% -1.7% 20% 10% -10.4%
all 10 +8.7% -1.7% 20% 10% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.7% 10% -10.4%
10% -11.1% 10% -19.0%
15% -19.7% 10% -26.8%
20% -27.6% 10% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$13 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage17d
Avg bet$353
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia enter Stavky by June 30? Jun 28 $44 +$51 +115%
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? Jun 28 $48 −$2 -4%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? Jun 25 $457 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $456 $0 -0%
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? Jun 18 $462 $0 -0%
Russia coup attempt in 2026? Jun 18 $460 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? Jun 17 $458 −$1 -0%
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? Jun 17 $460 +$1 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Oxuji Esports (-3.5) vs Misa Esports (+3.5) Jun 12 $336 −$74 -22%
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? Jun 11 $349 −$9 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia enter Stavky by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $95 5m
Will Russia enter Stavky by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $22 1h
Will Russia enter Stavky by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $22 1h
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $46 1h
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $24 4h
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $24 4h
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? SELL No 95¢ $456 2d
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? BUY No 95¢ $457 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $456 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $456 3d
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $462 10d
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $462 10d
Russia coup attempt in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $442 10d
Russia coup attempt in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $18 10d
Russia coup attempt in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $460 10d
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $457 10d
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $458 10d
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $462 10d
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $460 10d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Oxuji Esports (-3.5) vs Misa Esports (+3.5) SELL Oxuji Esports 75¢ $262 16d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Oxuji Esports (-3.5) vs Misa Esports (+3.5) BUY Oxuji Esports 96¢ $336 16d
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? SELL No 87¢ $339 16d
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? BUY No 89¢ $349 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records