Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:04:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b6f…eb05 other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 457d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate40%14W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$1
other 35% −$3
culture 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
politics 1% +$1
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 30% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 30% 0% -9.8%
all 35 -2.3% -11.6% 40% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 3% -10.0%
10% -20.1% 3% -18.6%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

457d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage457d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $6 $0 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $95 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $107 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $31 −$1 -4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $124 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $17 $0 -2%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? Dec 06 $7 $0 +2%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 23 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jun 21 $6 $0 -2%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $2 $0 +5%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? May 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? May 06 $11 $0 -1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 06 $10 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 06 $6 $0 -2%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 05 $6 $0 +2%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Apr 30 $5 $0 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 29 $2 $0 -9%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 28 $5 $0 +2%
Will Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 28 $1 $0 +29%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 27 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win by 50 or more seats? Apr 27 $5 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? Apr 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 21 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 20 $1 $0 -10%
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 14-21? Mar 23 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $45 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 43h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 47h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 2d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $30 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 54¢ $31 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $13 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $51 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $43 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $21 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $22 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $12 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $38 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $51 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $23 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $23 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.11 · official $46.11 (match) · 158 history records