Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:37:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2B 0x2b6f…0153 world 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 479d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate56%24W / 19L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$1
other 27% +$7
politics 9% +$1
sports 5% $0
finance 3% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.2% -9.4% 22% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 38% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 20 +0.4% -9.1% 40% 0% -9.5%
all 43 +1.5% -8.2% 56% 7% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 7% -9.0%
10% -17.0% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.0% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.3% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.53 per $1 lost it wins $2.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

479d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses24 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage479d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $49 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $61 $0 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $66 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $41 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $75 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $2 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $49 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $68 −$4 -6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $85 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $10 +$1 +6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $50 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $40 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 18 $21 +$1 +4%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 09 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6? Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $17 $0 -1%
Will the Giants make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 14 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 13 $22 $0 -1%
Will FIT-U hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following th Apr 09 $1 $0 +14%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? Apr 08 $1 $0 -9%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Apr 08 $23 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 07 $21 $0 +1%
Will Billy Donovan make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Apr 07 $16 +$2 +15%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top Champions League scorer? Apr 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 04 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Apr 03 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 03 $20 $0 +0%
Trump meets with Carney in March? Apr 02 $20 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $16 +$4 +22%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday? Mar 23 $17 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $49 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $49 32h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $49 32h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 36h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 36h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $10 36h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $12 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $23 46h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $48 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $48 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $41 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $41 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $4 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $8 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $32 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $28 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $15 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $44 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $44 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $27 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $16 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $43 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $11 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.02 · official $49.02 (match) · 147 history records