Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:55:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b71…f840 other 173 markets active 0h ago coverage 279d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,129 (-29%) realized −$674 · open −$455
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate17%26W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$949now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days+$261
14 days+$182
30 days+$182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$546
sports 15% −$92
crypto 11% −$316
politics 3% +$3
world 2% −$77
economics 1% −$48
tech 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 +10.5% -0.0% 23% 23% +12.8%
≤30d 104 -0.7% -10.2% 21% 21% +2.3%
≤90d 151 -30.9% -37.5% 15% 15% -30.7%
all 155 -27.2% -34.2% 17% 16% -32.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.2% 16% -32.2%
10% -40.5% 15% -38.7%
15% -46.2% 15% -44.6%
20% -51.5% 13% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -62% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$12 · ×3.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

279d coverage
Net worth$949
Realized−$674
Unrealized−$455
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses26 / 129
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions18
Markets (closed)155 / 173
History coverage279d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $1,134 $629 −$505 (-45%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 87¢ $39 $87 +$48 (+123%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $48 $44 −$4 (-9%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $36 $34 −$2 (-5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $26 $31 +$5 (+18%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $42 $31 −$12 (-28%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 60¢ $5 $21 +$17 (+362%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $13 $18 +$5 (+42%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-22%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-85%)
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$4 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $70 +$265 +377%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $170 +$30 +17%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $229 −$221 -96%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $8 +$6 +77%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $15 −$14 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $2 +$8 +550%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $11 +$9 +76%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $5 +$35 +650%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Haiti? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Haiti? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $24 +$26 +105%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 +$28 +1290%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $7 −$6 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $2 +$18 +785%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$35 +226%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 +$11 +36%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $11 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) SELL Brazil 2¢ $3 25m
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) SELL Brazil 3¢ $6 25m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? SELL Yes 5¢ $14 26m
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 26¢ $13 31m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 67¢ $34 31m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 42m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 90¢ $37 54m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 90¢ $45 54m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 90¢ $8 54m
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 66¢ $60 58m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 59m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 59m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 77¢ $78 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 78¢ $79 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 80¢ $80 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 19h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 19h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 19h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 19h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 19h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $14 19h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 19h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 19h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 19h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 19h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $948.88 · official $948.18 (match) · 707 history records