Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:08:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2B 0x2b72…2f21 other 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 97L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$313per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$36
politics 30% −$11
economics 5% −$2
world 3% −$1
sports 3% +$24
culture 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.8% -24.7% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 16 -6.4% -15.3% 6% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 109 -1.8% -11.1% 11% 8% -9.6%
all 109 -1.8% -11.1% 11% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 8% -9.6%
10% -19.6% 7% -18.2%
15% -27.4% 7% -26.1%
20% -34.5% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×5.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage86d
Avg bet$313
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $145 $144 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $66 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $91 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $403 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $54 $0 -0%
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 15 $37 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $70 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $61 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $319 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $671 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $362 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $329 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 01 $137 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $62 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 24 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $46 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $323 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $322 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 15 $303 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $316 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 14 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $328 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $633 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 10 $305 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $322 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $972 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $325 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 04 $307 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $912 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $335 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in April? May 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $322 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $330 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $324 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 26 $327 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $909 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $636 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $310 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $318 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $304 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $338 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $574 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $319 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $305 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $66 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $66 5h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $47 26h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $47 30h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $8 32h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $68 2d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $68 2d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $37 3d
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $37 4d
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? BUY No 100¢ $145 5d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $44 7d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $44 7d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $70 8d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $70 8d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $61 8d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 8d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 10d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 10d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $42 15d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $42 15d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $47 16d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 17d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 17d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 18d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $61 19d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 19d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 20d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.44 · official $144.44 (match) · 311 history records