Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:18:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b72…8d4b crypto 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7 (-3%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate51%19W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day17.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -15.0% -23.1% 51% 43% -25.8%
≤30d 37 -15.0% -23.1% 51% 43% -25.8%
≤90d 37 -15.0% -23.1% 51% 43% -25.8%
all 37 -15.0% -23.1% 51% 43% -25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 43% -25.8%
10% -30.4% 38% -32.9%
15% -37.1% 24% -39.4%
20% -43.3% 22% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses19 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage3d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 27 $4 +$4 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$8 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 26 $21 +$12 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$3 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 26 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 26 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 26 $1 +$1 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 26 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 26 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 26 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 26 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $8 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 67 history records