Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:34:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b75…2e6d other 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$66 (+2%) realized −$282 · open +$348
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%17W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day38.2pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$648now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$156
sports 35% +$393
crypto 18% −$264
world 1% +$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -12.1% -20.5% 24% 24% -17.2%
≤30d 70 -12.1% -20.5% 24% 24% -17.2%
≤90d 70 -12.1% -20.5% 24% 24% -17.2%
all 70 -12.1% -20.5% 24% 24% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.5% 24% -17.2%
10% ← realistic here -28.1% 24% -25.1%
15% -35.1% 21% -32.4%
20% -41.4% 19% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -84% → late +60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$42 · ×2.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$648
Realized−$282
Unrealized+$348
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses17 / 53
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions6
Markets (closed)70 / 80
History coverage3d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day38.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Belgium 44¢ 90¢ $100 $203 +$103 (+103%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 65¢ 100¢ $100 $153 +$53 (+53%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Under 15¢ 56¢ $30 $111 +$81 (+270%)
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? Yes 15¢ 55¢ $30 $109 +$79 (+263%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Belgium? Yes 13¢ 34¢ $20 $53 +$33 (+165%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Belgium? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 27 $93 −$90 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 27 $282 +$70 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 27 $145 −$140 -96%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $101 +$48 +48%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $21 +$104 +510%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $30 +$7 +24%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $51 +$118 +231%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $61 +$98 +160%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 26 $21 +$8 +37%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 26 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 26 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 26 $32 −$30 -95%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $306 −$300 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 26 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Spain? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 1 Iraq? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $61 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Spain? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 26 $51 +$187 +365%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $51 +$306 +596%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $102 +$255 +250%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $21 +$337 +1636%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $81 +$130 +159%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $101 +$55 +55%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $101 +$53 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $61 +$25 +42%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Germany? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Germany? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $254 −$250 -99%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $32 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $62 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $39 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 1h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 15¢ $31 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? SELL Yes 12¢ $27 7h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 9h
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 9h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 24¢ $29 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $21 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $21 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $31 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $31 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $32 9h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $204 10h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $30 10h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 24¢ $51 10h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 10h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 10h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $648.44 · official $648.45 (match) · 126 history records