Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:31:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2B 0x2b76…61b0 other 139 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$49 (-0%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate6%8W / 131L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$16
politics 30% −$11
economics 6% −$2
sports 5% −$22
crypto 4% −$1
tech 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 125 -1.4% -10.8% 3% 2% -9.6%
all 139 -3.9% -13.1% 6% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 4% -9.7%
10% -21.4% 4% -18.3%
15% -29.0% 4% -26.2%
20% -36.0% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1 · ×10.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses8 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)139 / 139
History coverage117d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 139 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $50 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $28 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 07 $36 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $199 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $23 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $24 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $196 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $202 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $150 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $190 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $716 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $345 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $202 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 20 $169 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $151 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $393 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $212 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $193 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $322 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $357 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $154 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $211 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $3 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $204 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $178 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $34 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $203 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 03 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $206 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $182 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $182 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $352 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $224 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $161 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $167 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election Apr 30 $206 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 27 $176 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $738 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $170 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $329 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 4h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 4h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 11h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $20 16h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 42h
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $20 2d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $20 3d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 7d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 7d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $24 7d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $24 7d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $20 7d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $20 7d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 8d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 10d
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $28 11d
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $28 12d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 12d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 13d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $36 14d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $36 14d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 14d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 15d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $23 15d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 15d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $21 15d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $21 16d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 22d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 390 history records