Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:28:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2B 0x2b78…f14f sports 233 markets active 1h ago coverage 595d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,979 (-11%) realized −$4,163 · open +$184
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%102W / 130L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$238est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$284now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$129
7 days+$157
14 days+$272
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$504
sports 43% −$2,965
world 6% −$425
crypto 5% +$143
politics 2% −$226
culture 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +3.2% -6.6% 39% 39% -7.7%
≤30d 49 +9.0% -1.4% 37% 37% -10.3%
≤90d 207 -14.5% -22.6% 39% 37% -24.7%
all 232 -7.5% -16.3% 44% 42% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 42% -20.0%
10% -24.3% 40% -27.6%
15% -31.6% 38% -34.6%
20% -38.3% 34% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$130 vs −$134 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage
Net worth$284
Realized−$4,163
Unrealized+$184
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses102 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$238
Open positions1
Markets (closed)232 / 233
History coverage595d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 232 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Over 35¢ 100¢ $100 $284 +$184 (+184%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 87 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$9 -18%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $503 +$73 +14%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $204 −$76 -38%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $658 +$443 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 +$19 +19%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $528 +$252 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $305 −$300 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $408 +$345 +85%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $606 −$600 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $112 +$3 +3%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$166 +163%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$182 +178%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $507 −$272 -54%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $406 +$331 +82%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $306 −$300 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $204 −$4 -2%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +437%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $366 +$272 +74%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $50 +$287 +576%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $367 +$209 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $406 −$400 -99%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $305 +$320 +105%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 +$99 +97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $305 −$300 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$10 -10%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$148 +146%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 −$26 -25%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $303 +$104 +34%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $51 +$449 +874%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $307 −$300 -98%
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $129 −$126 -98%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 29 $213 −$208 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $84 −$83 -99%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $57 −$55 -96%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 09 $85 −$84 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $102 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 13¢ $42 3h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 5h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $576 20h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $503 21h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 26¢ $127 23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $204 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,101 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $152 27h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $506 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 28h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $15 28h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $5 28h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $25 28h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 28h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $5 28h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $5 28h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $5 28h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 28h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $50 28h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $5 28h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $5 28h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 29h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $528 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $203 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 64¢ $88 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $284.29 · official $284.29 (match) · 514 history records