Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:37:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b7a…3acc sports 380 markets active 2h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$547 (-2%) realized −$547 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%130W / 249L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$121
7 days−$68
14 days−$68
30 days−$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$1,150
crypto 9% −$223
other 2% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +3.7% -6.2% 36% 36% -12.6%
≤30d 163 -5.1% -14.2% 41% 40% -13.6%
≤90d 202 -3.0% -12.2% 36% 36% -23.8%
all 379 -5.8% -14.8% 34% 34% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 34% -15.7%
10% -22.9% 31% -23.8%
15% -30.4% 27% -31.1%
20% -37.2% 23% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$38 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$547
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses130 / 249
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)379 / 380
History coverage175d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 379 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 159 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND Switzerl Jun 18 $57 +$147 +257%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $30 −$29 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $32 −$31 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $121 −$59 -49%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $83 −$4 -5%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$17 -84%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $53 +$47 +88%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $24 −$23 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $36 −$35 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $44 −$12 -26%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $101 −$27 -26%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 18 $31 +$46 +152%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $10 +$62 +603%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $46 +$127 +275%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $7 +$2 +35%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $10 −$3 -29%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $105 −$60 -57%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $25 +$46 +183%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $10 −$8 -82%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$7 -66%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $48 +$11 +24%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $36 +$21 +58%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $24 −$4 -17%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $99 −$98 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $137 −$135 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $241 −$5 -2%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $125 +$31 +25%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $202 +$36 +18%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $43 +$33 +77%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $21 +$16 +79%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$11 +104%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$8 -75%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 +$11 +111%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $15 −$14 -94%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -22%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 26 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 26 $47 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 26 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 26 $16 −$14 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 26 $20 −$9 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 26 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 26 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 26 $10 +$22 +208%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 25¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 20¢ $32 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 27¢ $62 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $121 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 50¢ $79 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND Switzerl BUY 27¢ $57 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $83 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 3h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $100 3h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 36¢ $36 4h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) SELL Czechia 33¢ $32 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 42¢ $74 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $32 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $6 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $6 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $9 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $101 5h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 44¢ $44 5h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 18h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 39¢ $31 19h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 94¢ $72 20h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 81¢ $173 20h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 21h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 89¢ $10 21h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 65¢ $7 22h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 22h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 21¢ $46 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.64 · official $9.64 (match) · 1014 history records