Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:37:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2B 0x2b7a…f00a sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$486 (-9%) realized −$486 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate60%9W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$348per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$492
world 38% +$3
other 16% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 15 -18.0% -25.8% 60% 7% -18.0%
all 15 -18.0% -25.8% 60% 7% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 7% -18.0%
10% -32.9% 0% -25.9%
15% -39.4% 0% -33.0%
20% -45.3% 0% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$142 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$486
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage82d
Avg bet$348
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will US annex any territory in 2026? Jun 23 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? Jun 23 $379 $0 +0%
Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-2.5) May 23 $442 +$27 +6%
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? May 22 $442 $0 +0%
Spread: Brøndby IF (-2.5) May 22 $456 +$14 +3%
Spread: Zhejiang Zhiye FC (-2.5) May 20 $447 −$446 -100%
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? May 20 $450 $0 +0%
Spread: SS Juve Stabia (-1.5) May 20 $448 +$22 +5%
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by May 31? May 19 $449 $0 +0%
Spread: Gwangju FC (-1.5) May 13 $490 +$10 +2%
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? May 12 $490 $0 +0%
Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-2.5) Apr 22 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 Apr 22 $12 +$2 +14%
Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-2.5) Apr 19 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Iran strike Ukraine by April 30, 2026? Apr 03 $224 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will US annex any territory in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $377 1h
Will US annex any territory in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $378 2h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $379 2h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $379 4h
Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-2.5) BUY Atalanta BC 94¢ $442 32d
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $442 32d
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $442 32d
Spread: Brøndby IF (-2.5) BUY FC København 97¢ $456 33d
Spread: Zhejiang Zhiye FC (-2.5) BUY Shandong Taishan FC 94¢ $447 34d
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $450 34d
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $450 34d
Spread: SS Juve Stabia (-1.5) BUY AC Monza 95¢ $448 34d
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $449 34d
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $449 34d
Spread: Gwangju FC (-1.5) BUY FC Seoul 98¢ $490 41d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $490 41d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $490 42d
Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-2.5) BUY Real Sociedad de Fútbol $32 62d
Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-2.5) BUY Real Sociedad de Fútbol $33 62d
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 SELL Yes $7 62d
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 SELL Yes $7 62d
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 BUY Yes $6 62d
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 BUY Yes $6 62d
Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-2.5) BUY RC Strasbourg Alsace $28 65d
Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-2.5) BUY RC Strasbourg Alsace $27 65d
Will Iran strike Ukraine by April 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $24 81d
Will Iran strike Ukraine by April 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $24 81d
Will Iran strike Ukraine by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes $4 81d
Will Iran strike Ukraine by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes $4 81d
Will Iran strike Ukraine by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records