Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:28:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2B 0x2b7b…1c28 sports 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,291 (-22%) realized −$928 · open −$363
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%15W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$128
14 days−$211
30 days−$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$1,660
other 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 -33.5% -39.9% 50% 50% -19.6%
≤90d 14 -20.6% -28.2% 50% 50% -17.9%
all 30 -16.7% -24.6% 50% 50% -31.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 50% -31.0%
10% -31.8% 50% -37.6%
15% -38.4% 43% -43.6%
20% -44.4% 20% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$169 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$928
Unrealized−$363
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses15 / 15
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage178d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm New York Liberty 77¢ 16¢ $462 $99 −$363 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $129 −$128 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 16 $592 +$212 +36%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $301 −$295 -98%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 09 $459 +$141 +31%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs BIG (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division P May 28 $166 −$165 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs GIANTX (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier P May 28 $121 +$39 +32%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 05 $124 −$121 -98%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 05 $182 +$65 +36%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 25 $268 −$262 -98%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 25 $404 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 23 $284 +$113 +40%
Panthers vs. Senators Apr 18 $168 +$62 +37%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd Mar 30 $275 +$275 +100%
76ers vs. Heat Mar 30 $286 −$283 -99%
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers Mar 27 $22 +$25 +112%
Heat vs. Hornets Mar 17 $410 −$410 -100%
Nuggets vs. Lakers Mar 14 $112 −$112 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls Mar 11 $66 +$39 +59%
Canadiens vs. Kings Mar 11 $78 +$92 +118%
Cavaliers vs. Magic Mar 11 $431 −$431 -100%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 02 $106 −$106 -100%
Celtics vs. Lakers Feb 26 $57 +$51 +89%
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz Feb 18 $56 +$22 +39%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Grou Feb 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers Feb 12 $51 +$23 +45%
Timberwolves vs. Raptors Feb 04 $44 −$44 -100%
Bucks vs. Wizards Jan 29 $90 −$90 -100%
Raptors vs. Hornets Jan 29 $77 +$27 +35%
Suns vs. Hawks Jan 29 $41 −$41 -100%
76ers vs. Grizzlies Jan 07 $52 +$48 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY New York Liberty 77¢ $465 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 64¢ $129 4d
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 33¢ $236 10d
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 32¢ $2 10d
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 32¢ $64 10d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 73¢ $74 16d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 73¢ $518 16d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BIG 76¢ $459 22d
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs BIG (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division P BUY BIG 87¢ $166 28d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs GIANTX (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier P BUY Movistar KOI 75¢ $121 41d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Lakers 13¢ $124 51d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 73¢ $182 54d
Thunder vs. Suns BUY Suns 23¢ $6 62d
Thunder vs. Suns BUY Suns 23¢ $262 62d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $404 62d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $404 64d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 71¢ $284 68d
Panthers vs. Senators BUY Senators 73¢ $168 77d
76ers vs. Heat BUY 76ers 57¢ $286 87d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd BUY Aurora Gaming 50¢ $275 90d
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers BUY Nebraska Cornhuskers 47¢ $22 96d
Heat vs. Hornets BUY Heat 41¢ $410 100d
Nuggets vs. Lakers BUY Nuggets 56¢ $112 103d
Cavaliers vs. Magic BUY Cavaliers 60¢ $162 106d
Cavaliers vs. Magic BUY Cavaliers 60¢ $30 106d
Cavaliers vs. Magic BUY Cavaliers 60¢ $240 106d
Canadiens vs. Kings BUY Canadiens 46¢ $78 110d
Counter-Strike: NIP vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 BUY NIP 59¢ $106 115d
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls BUY Trail Blazers 63¢ $66 119d
Celtics vs. Lakers BUY Celtics 53¢ $57 123d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.00 · official $150.00 · 65 history records