Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:32:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2B 0x2b7c…4394 crypto 1101 markets active 4h ago coverage 105d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 105d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$467 (+1%) realized +$475 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate74%810W / 290L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days−$76
14 days+$82
30 days−$1,425
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$92
sports 17% −$58
world 10% +$653
finance 7% −$650
other 5% +$284
culture 1% +$134
politics 1% −$64
tech 0% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -12.5% -20.8% 55% 53% -11.9%
≤30d 224 -17.1% -25.0% 50% 44% -25.8%
≤90d 666 -4.2% -13.3% 67% 42% -10.2%
all 1100 -2.5% -11.8% 74% 39% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 39% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 21% -17.9%
15% -27.9% 12% -25.8%
20% -35.0% 6% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$23 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$475
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses810 / 290
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1100 / 1101
History coverage105d ⚠
Avg bet$38
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 73¢ 54¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 17 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $67 −$67 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $61 +$25 +42%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$4 -22%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$6 +20%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$6 +20%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $30 +$11 +36%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$3 +13%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 +$19 +64%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $67 +$16 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $61 −$30 -49%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 -3%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $42 −$42 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $20 −$16 -81%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $50 −$20 -40%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $28 +$10 +36%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $40 +$19 +46%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $16 +$9 +58%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $50 +$15 +31%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $74 −$50 -67%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $30 −$19 -64%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 −$20 -66%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 15 $40 +$18 +46%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 +$19 +184%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $50 −$17 -33%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $15 +$5 +32%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$4 +22%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$10 +48%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $30 +$18 +58%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $129 +$51 +39%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $30 +$11 +36%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $61 +$17 +28%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $83 +$15 +18%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $93 −$92 -99%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $30 −$7 -24%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $40 −$40 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$16 +79%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $40 +$12 +29%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$16 +54%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $66 +$25 +38%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $20 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 77¢ $72 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $67 4h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $86 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $16 15h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $36 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $20 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $30 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $30 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $41 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $30 19h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 88¢ $20 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $49 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $30 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $30 28h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $57 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $31 28h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $10 28h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 55¢ $10 28h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 29h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 80¢ $40 29h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 61¢ $42 30h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Jakub Mensik 13¢ $4 31h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron SELL Marcos Giron 56¢ $30 31h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 65¢ $20 31h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 92¢ $50 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.19 · official $22.19 (match) · 3500 history records