Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:31:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b7e…93e1 crypto 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$90 (-23%) realized −$90 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%18W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 66d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.5% -10.0% 42% 42% +13.6%
≤30d 24 -0.5% -10.0% 42% 42% +13.6%
≤90d 48 -20.1% -27.7% 38% 38% -25.5%
all 48 -20.1% -27.7% 38% 38% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.7% 38% -25.5%
10% -34.6% 35% -32.7%
15% -40.9% 35% -39.2%
20% -46.7% 35% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$90
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses18 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage66d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $4 +$6 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 29 $19 +$19 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 29 $8 +$11 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 29 $7 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $8 +$8 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 29 $8 +$21 +254%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$7 +230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$3 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$6 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$6 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1AM ET Apr 25 $27 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 25 $24 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Apr 25 $11 +$14 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 25 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Apr 25 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Apr 25 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Apr 25 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Apr 25 $9 +$7 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Apr 25 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Apr 25 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Apr 25 $5 +$7 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Apr 25 $17 +$13 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Apr 25 $10 +$7 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Apr 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Apr 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Apr 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Apr 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Apr 24 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Apr 24 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Apr 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Apr 24 $15 −$14 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $27 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $28 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 69 history records