Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:23:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2B 0x2b80…fa94 crypto 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 232d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$83 (-39%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$56
14 days−$56
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$60
other 25% −$25
crypto 7% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-65.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -36.9% -42.9% 0% 0% -38.1%
≤30d 4 -36.9% -42.9% 0% 0% -38.1%
≤90d 5 -49.5% -54.3% 0% 0% -47.1%
all 8 -61.6% -65.3% 0% 0% -48.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -65.3% 0% -48.1%
10% -68.6% 0% -53.1%
15% -71.6% 0% -57.6%
20% -74.4% 0% -61.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -62% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$11 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 8
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage232d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $30 −$2 -7%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$2 -15%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $113 −$29 -26%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -99%
Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 03 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Nov 01 $1 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Nov 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Real Madrid (-2.5) Nov 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 47¢ $28 1h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 22h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 22h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 15¢ $81 23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $23 6d
Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $30 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $1 232d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 232d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 232d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 232d
Spread: Real Madrid (-2.5) BUY Valencia 60¢ $1 232d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records