Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:56:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b81…bf19 sports 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$269 (-8%) realized −$340 · open +$71
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%35W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$381now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$130
7 days+$97
14 days−$50
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$92
other 15% −$112
crypto 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -3.4% -12.6% 67% 67% -3.1%
≤30d 41 -4.2% -13.3% 66% 66% -12.2%
≤90d 61 -7.9% -16.7% 57% 57% -19.3%
all 61 -7.9% -16.7% 57% 57% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 57% -19.3%
10% -24.6% 46% -27.0%
15% -31.9% 25% -34.0%
20% -38.6% 16% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$34 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$381
Realized−$340
Unrealized+$71
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses35 / 26
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions6
Markets (closed)61 / 68
History coverage50d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 66¢ 100¢ $80 $121 +$41 (+51%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 91¢ 100¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 75¢ 100¢ $50 $67 +$17 (+33%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 84¢ 100¢ $40 $48 +$8 (+19%)
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Over 71¢ 71¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Over 63¢ 52¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $37 −$17 -46%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 +$2 +18%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 +$3 +29%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 +$3 +27%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 +$4 +36%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $86 +$46 +53%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $101 +$52 +51%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$3 +34%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $50 +$19 +38%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $50 +$15 +31%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $50 +$16 +32%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$21 -70%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $100 +$19 +18%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $21 −$6 -28%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 14 $50 −$27 -55%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $50 +$12 +24%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $30 +$22 +73%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 8.5 Corners Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $130 +$17 +13%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $101 +$23 +23%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $30 +$10 +32%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $30 +$15 +50%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$12 +57%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $20 +$6 +27%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $120 +$14 +11%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$7 +73%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 Jun 04 $20 +$3 +16%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $151 −$150 -99%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) May 23 $10 +$2 +23%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 23 $10 +$4 +38%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $10 −$3 -25%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $101 +$29 +29%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $151 −$31 -20%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 May 06 $242 −$64 -26%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 06 $20 +$66 +325%
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? May 06 $10 +$7 +73%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 May 06 $60 −$60 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $117 −$115 -98%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 May 06 $51 −$50 -99%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 May 06 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 35¢ $20 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $40 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $35 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $100 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $2 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $50 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 83¢ $10 3h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 AND United States vs. Australia: O/ BUY 52¢ $51 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $30 3h
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $20 3h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $20 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $10 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $51 3h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 73¢ $50 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $50 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $16 26h
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $10 27h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 73¢ $10 27h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $20 27h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $51 27h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 76¢ $50 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $50 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 16¢ $9 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 85¢ $20 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $50 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $381.41 · official $437.44 · 134 history records