Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:19:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b81…1061 crypto 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 538d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$55 (-1%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate38%10W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 90% +$2
other 3% −$9
economics 2% −$2
sports 2% −$41
crypto 2% +$4
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -14.9% -23.0% 50% 25% -9.1%
≤30d 4 -14.9% -23.0% 50% 25% -9.1%
≤90d 11 -10.4% -18.9% 73% 18% -10.7%
all 26 -7.6% -16.4% 38% 12% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 12% -10.2%
10% -24.4% 12% -18.8%
15% -31.7% 4% -26.7%
20% -38.4% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

538d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage538d
Avg bet$220
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? No 92¢ 91¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$10 +41%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $25 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 05 $11 +$3 +28%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 05 $27 +$1 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 13 $19 +$1 +3%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $20 +$1 +4%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Mar 24 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Mar 24 $20 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 13? Jan 13 $20 $0 -1%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 28 $49 −$49 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 28 $50 −$3 -7%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 03 $20 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? May 06 $30 $0 -0%
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists? Apr 01 $30 $0 -0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 10 $40 $0 -0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 10 $30 +$9 +30%
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence? Feb 12 $30 $0 -0%
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 03 $18 $0 -3%
Will Lamar Jackson be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 03 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ja’Marr Chase be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 03 $20 $0 -0%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? Jan 03 $18 $0 -1%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? Jan 03 $15 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Dec 30 $5,309 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY No 92¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $36 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 22h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $20 22h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $25 22h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $25 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $14 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 43d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 95¢ $28 43d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 91¢ $27 65d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 65d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 98¢ $20 65d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $17 81d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 81d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 85d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 95¢ $19 85d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? BUY No 98¢ $20 112d
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $20 112d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 13? SELL Yes 96¢ $20 155d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 13? BUY Yes 97¢ $20 155d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 35¢ $49 262d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 80¢ $47 263d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 269d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL Yes 96¢ $20 380d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes 96¢ $20 380d
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 98¢ $30 407d
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 408d
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 443d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.75 · official $19.75 (match) · 119 history records