Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:21:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b84…5c6d sports 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$288 (+10%) realized +$275 · open +$13
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%22W / 20L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$152
7 days−$39
14 days−$39
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$71
other 26% +$393
crypto 3% −$70
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -1.2% -10.7% 62% 62% -11.6%
≤30d 29 -1.2% -10.7% 62% 62% -11.6%
≤90d 41 -14.9% -23.0% 51% 51% -30.8%
all 42 -9.0% -17.7% 52% 52% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 52% -1.7%
10% -25.6% 52% -11.1%
15% -32.8% 40% -19.7%
20% -39.3% 33% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$60 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized+$275
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses22 / 20
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage91d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Philip Henning 59¢ 66¢ $100 $113 +$13 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 16 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $51 +$43 +84%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $93 −$91 -99%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $71 +$21 +29%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $41 +$30 +73%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $91 +$49 +54%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 15 $131 +$64 +49%
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith Jun 15 $61 −$60 -99%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $61 +$36 +59%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $61 −$60 -99%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 15 $61 +$34 +57%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $66 +$31 +47%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $60 +$20 +32%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $60 +$19 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $61 +$46 +76%
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Ilkley: Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $25 +$25 +97%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $101 +$26 +26%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 13 $61 −$61 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $61 −$1 -2%
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 12 $51 +$27 +53%
Tucuman: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 12 $61 +$42 +68%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 12 $61 +$35 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 17 $18 −$17 -94%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Karolina Muchova vs Coco Gauff Apr 17 $40 −$24 -61%
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Francisco Cerundolo Apr 17 $150 −$118 -79%
Lakers vs. Pistons Mar 24 $45 −$45 -100%
Sao Paulo: Juan Carlos Prado vs Daniel Dutra da Silva Mar 23 $20 +$24 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Kings (-4.5) Mar 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Mar 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Thunder vs. Wizards Mar 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Mar 23 $320 −$320 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Mar 22 $40 +$42 +104%
Lakers vs. Magic Mar 22 $30 +$19 +64%
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 18 $350 +$813 +232%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 2m
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva SELL Joao Lucas Da Silva 99¢ $5 19m
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee BUY Philip Henning 59¢ $101 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $31 41m
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Joao Lucas Da Silva 66¢ $3 1h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato SELL Marco Cecchinato 99¢ $93 3h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Marco Cecchinato 53¢ $51 4h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 45¢ $50 18h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 59¢ $43 18h
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur SELL Buvaysar Gadamauri 99¢ $91 18h
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Buvaysar Gadamauri 76¢ $71 19h
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston BUY Taylah Preston 57¢ $41 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 21h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov SELL Denis Shapovalov 99¢ $140 21h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 64¢ $91 22h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Francesca Jones 62¢ $101 22h
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia SELL Nicolas Mejia 100¢ $195 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY $7 22h
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Nicolas Mejia 66¢ $131 22h
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith BUY Clement Chidekh 60¢ $61 23h
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini SELL Luisina Giovannini 100¢ $97 23h
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini BUY Luisina Giovannini 62¢ $61 24h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Maya Joint 69¢ $61 24h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito SELL Petra Marcinko 100¢ $95 25h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito BUY Petra Marcinko 63¢ $61 26h
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken SELL Botic van de Zandschulp 99¢ $97 26h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 63¢ $40 28h
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 66¢ $66 28h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi SELL Suzan Lamens 99¢ $79 28h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Marie Bouzkova 75¢ $60 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.13 · official $113.13 (match) · 83 history records