Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:14:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2B 0x2b8c…3771 crypto 244 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,341 (-2%) realized −$1,349 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate52%122W / 113L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day31.4pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$674now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$305
7 days−$422
14 days−$1,342
30 days−$2,075
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$3,296
sports 3% +$306
world 2% +$487
other 1% +$193
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +2.4% -7.3% 60% 49% -15.4%
≤30d 104 -4.6% -13.7% 56% 46% -17.9%
≤90d 235 +3.0% -6.8% 52% 47% -12.5%
all 235 +3.0% -6.8% 52% 47% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 47% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 42% -20.8%
15% -23.8% 36% -28.5%
20% -31.3% 31% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +12% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$159 vs −$192 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$674
Realized−$1,349
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses122 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions8
Markets (closed)235 / 244
History coverage62d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day31.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 235 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream Atlanta Dream 99¢ 100¢ $142 $143 +$1 (+1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Boston Red Sox 51¢ 81¢ $76 $122 +$46 (+60%)
Spread: Dallas Wings (-10.5) Seattle Storm 55¢ 57¢ $110 $114 +$4 (+4%)
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Indiana Fever 97¢ 100¢ $99 $102 +$3 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Up 48¢ 28¢ $125 $75 −$50 (-40%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $32 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jordan 62¢ 60¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 85 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $242 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $86 +$60 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 23 $114 +$122 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$11 +11%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 23 $51 +$51 +101%
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 23 $86 +$14 +16%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $54 +$54 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $62 +$41 +65%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 23 $51 −$32 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $108 −$13 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 23 $89 −$16 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 23 $174 −$13 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $145 +$76 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 23 $87 +$57 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 23 $84 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $257 −$121 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 23 $44 −$31 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 23 $102 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $131 −$13 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $419 −$418 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $194 −$192 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $291 +$176 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $321 +$116 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $545 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $151 −$131 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $249 +$201 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $292 +$57 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $62 +$129 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $45 +$17 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $37 +$9 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $34 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $271 −$210 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $91 −$89 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $153 −$146 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $147 −$142 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $155 −$8 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $249 −$246 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $213 −$209 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $210 +$27 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $267 +$119 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $170 +$177 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $132 +$41 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $288 −$283 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $120 −$28 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $289 −$278 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $40 4m
Spread: Dallas Wings (-10.5) BUY Seattle Storm 55¢ $110 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $91 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $31 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $72 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $154 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $42 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $46 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $25 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $6 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $35 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $21 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $42 14m
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 97¢ $99 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $40 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $47 19m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $11 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $16 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $13 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $6 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $45 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $674.46 · official $670.91 (match) · 2095 history records