Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:35:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b8e…cefb crypto 317 markets active 5d ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (207 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$46 (-10%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%117W / 200L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day206.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (207 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 315 -2.6% -11.9% 37% 36% -24.6%
≤30d 317 -1.4% -10.8% 37% 36% -23.7%
≤90d 317 -1.4% -10.8% 37% 36% -23.7%
all 317 -1.4% -10.8% 37% 36% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover206.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 36% -23.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 34% -31.0%
15% -27.1% 32% -37.7%
20% -34.3% 28% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses117 / 200
Open positions0
Markets (closed)317 / 317
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day206.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 317 Trades
no open positions (131 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 529 history records