Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:27:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2B 0x2b8f…7962 sports 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$502 (+10%) realized +$502 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate69%9W / 4L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$310per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days−$166
14 days−$166
30 days−$166
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$17
politics 26% +$503
world 24% −$77
crypto 11% +$79
sports 9% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -2.5% -11.8% 64% 55% -15.8%
≤30d 11 -2.5% -11.8% 64% 55% -15.8%
≤90d 12 +1.0% -8.7% 67% 58% -1.2%
all 13 +1.9% -7.8% 69% 62% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 62% -0.4%
10% -16.6% 46% -9.9%
15% -24.7% 38% -18.6%
20% -32.1% 23% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$133 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized+$502
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses9 / 4
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage170d
Avg bet$310
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 69¢ $83 $85 +$2 (+2%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $27 +$26 +93%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $27 +$33 +122%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $101 +$26 +26%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $170 −$168 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 15 $522 +$79 +15%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,000 +$91 +9%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $47 +$23 +50%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $152 +$86 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $253 −$250 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $63 −$62 -98%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $1,272 +$503 +40%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 30 $1,124 +$148 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.77 · official $92.79 (match) · 25 history records