Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:19:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2B 0x2b92…979a other 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate43%21W / 28L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% $0
world 14% $0
politics 13% +$3
culture 8% $0
sports 6% +$1
crypto 5% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 3% $0
weather 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 2 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
all 49 +15.3% +4.3% 43% 8% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.3% 8% -8.9%
10% -5.7% 6% -17.7%
15% -14.8% 6% -25.6%
20% -23.1% 4% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses21 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage478d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $53 $53 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 27 $2 $0 +11%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Brooks Koepka win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 12 $17 −$1 -4%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jun 12 $17 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 10 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 07 $15 $0 +1%
Will the US add less than 50k jobs in May? Jun 05 $6 $0 -1%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 04 $14 $0 -1%
Will Lautaro Martínez win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 03 $1 $0 -9%
Will Lee Jae-myung win between 45% and 47% of the vote in the South Ko Jun 03 $12 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 02 $17 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 31 $17 $0 -0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 30 $17 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 29 $4 $0 +6%
Will Gold hit $3,600 before June? May 28 $13 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $110 in May? May 28 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? May 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? May 22 $14 $0 +2%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? May 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $1 +$2 +135%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? Apr 06 $14 $0 +1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 04 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $1 $0 -7%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Left be part of the next German government? Apr 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Abdul Carter be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 02 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days? Apr 02 $1 $0 -15%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025? Apr 01 $17 −$1 -4%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $16 +$1 +3%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 26 $17 $0 -2%
Will Heathrow Airport reopen by Saturday 8 AM GMT? Mar 22 $17 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Pocahontas" during Digital Asset Summit? Mar 21 $17 $0 +2%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 20 $8 $0 +1%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Mar 19 $6 +$3 +45%
Will Doc Rivers make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Mar 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will "Wicked" win Best Sound at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked' win 0 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards? Mar 02 $6 $0 -1%
Incarnate Word vs. Northwestern State Mar 02 $6 $0 -2%
Will 'Wicked' win 4-5 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards? Mar 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will "Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat" win Best Documentary Feature Film a Mar 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will "The Substance" win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 2025 Oscar Mar 02 $21 −$1 -2%
Will "The Substance" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $6 $0 -1%
Illinois vs. Michigan Mar 02 $14 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $53 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $2 5h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $4 5h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes $5 9h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $16 30d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $6 31d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $10 31d
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY No 90¢ $2 360d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 374d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $6 374d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $16 375d
Will Brooks Koepka win The 2025 U.S. Open? SELL No 95¢ $16 375d
Will Brooks Koepka win The 2025 U.S. Open? BUY No 99¢ $17 376d
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election SELL No 96¢ $17 376d
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election BUY No 96¢ $17 377d
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and SELL Yes 98¢ $2 377d
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and SELL Yes 98¢ $15 377d
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and BUY Yes 97¢ $17 380d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $17 380d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $17 380d
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 SELL No 98¢ $15 380d
Will the US add less than 50k jobs in May? SELL Yes $0 382d
Will the US add less than 50k jobs in May? SELL Yes $2 382d
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 BUY No 97¢ $15 383d
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening SELL No 96¢ $13 384d
Will Lautaro Martínez win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes $0 384d
Will Lautaro Martínez win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes $0 384d
Will Lautaro Martínez win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes $0 384d
Will Lautaro Martínez win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes $0 384d
Will Lautaro Martínez win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes $0 384d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.04 · official $55.04 (match) · 144 history records