Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:22:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b93…cdec weather 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,036 (+10%) realized +$1,002 · open +$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate42%47W / 64L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$313now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$113
14 days+$114
30 days−$1,118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 53% +$665
other 39% +$178
crypto 4% −$40
sports 3% +$96
world 1% −$9
politics 1% −$2
tech 0% +$5
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -16.6% -24.5% 64% 55% +6.4%
≤30d 51 -46.8% -51.9% 33% 20% -47.3%
≤90d 111 -9.3% -17.9% 42% 29% -2.2%
all 111 -9.3% -17.9% 42% 29% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 29% -2.2%
10% -25.8% 23% -11.5%
15% -32.9% 16% -20.1%
20% -39.5% 12% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +30% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$27 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$313
Realized+$1,002
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses47 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions12
Markets (closed)111 / 123
History coverage75d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26? Yes 78¢ 99¢ $136 $174 +$37 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 26? No 80¢ 100¢ $30 $38 +$8 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 27? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $37 $26 −$11 (-29%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 26? No 95¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 74¢ 99¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+34%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $19 $14 −$5 (-24%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 99¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 28? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $5 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Will Ruben Gallego be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+189%)
Will Andy Beshear be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+128%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 26? Yes 15¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 25? Jun 25 $147 +$60 +41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25? Jun 25 $72 +$10 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $10 +$5 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -74%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $10 +$5 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? Jun 24 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? Jun 23 $121 +$20 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $156 +$35 +23%
Will Claude go down 0-2 times in June? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $122 +$3 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $50 +$10 +19%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $75 +$61 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 11? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert (Lightweight, Main Card) Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 17? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 18? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 17? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 18? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 18? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 17? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 07 $23 −$15 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 21? Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 19? Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on April 18? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 17? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on April 18? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 16? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 16? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on April 18? Jun 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 17? Jun 07 $16 −$12 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 18? Jun 07 $318 −$226 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 18? Jun 07 $847 −$834 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 17? Jun 07 $100 −$95 -95%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $101 +$34 +34%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $115 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $10 +$1 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10 $0 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +4%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $4 −$1 -15%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $16 −$1 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $10 +$4 +35%
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in May? May 30 $12 −$1 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? May 30 $13 −$4 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26? BUY Yes 90¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26? BUY Yes 91¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26? BUY Yes 91¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26? BUY Yes 94¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26? BUY Yes 93¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 28? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 27? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 27? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 27? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 27? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 27? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 26? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 26? BUY No 77¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 26? BUY No 79¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26? BUY Yes 62¢ $12 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26? BUY Yes 62¢ $14 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 26? BUY No 83¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 95¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 95¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 27? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 27? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 27? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 27? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 27? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 27? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 27? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 27? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $313.32 · official $313.32 (match) · 819 history records