Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:46:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b95…f699 crypto 87 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,044 (-7%) realized −$1,973 · open −$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%34W / 49L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$359per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$72est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$985
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$6,732
sports 15% +$4,482
other 1% −$71
politics 0% −$10
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 13 -11.7% -20.1% 46% 38% -8.9%
≤90d 83 -5.5% -14.5% 41% 35% -18.0%
all 83 -5.5% -14.5% 41% 35% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 35% -18.0%
10% -22.6% 28% -25.9%
15% -30.1% 27% -33.0%
20% -37.0% 23% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$282 vs −$242 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$214
Realized−$1,973
Unrealized−$71
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses34 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions2
Markets (closed)83 / 87
History coverage41d
Avg bet$359
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $185 $185 −$1 (-0%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? No 70¢ 21¢ $100 $29 −$71 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2,014 +$3,012 +150%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $705 −$699 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $726 −$544 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $4,319 −$3,847 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $1,432 +$638 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 11 $103 +$69 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 11 $3,019 +$286 +10%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2,031 +$2,168 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 05 $680 −$660 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 05 $172 −$139 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 05 $1,017 −$182 -18%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 15 $1,180 −$1,142 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 15 $122 −$101 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 15 $31 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 15 $101 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 15 $98 +$78 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 15 $305 −$300 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 15 $1,017 +$57 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 15 $209 −$79 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 15 $308 +$42 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 15 $64 +$56 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 15 $369 +$309 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 15 $189 +$111 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 15 $387 +$113 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 15 $273 +$27 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 15 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 15 $449 +$88 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 15 $40 −$12 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 15 $107 +$93 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 15 $108 −$104 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 15 $101 +$12 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 16? May 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 15 $207 +$179 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 15 $30 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 15 $555 +$237 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 15 $57 +$43 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 15 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 15 $134 −$134 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 15 $151 −$146 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 15 $158 −$156 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 14 $147 +$149 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 55¢ $11 20m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 51¢ $51 35m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $34 56m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 53¢ $51 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $141 1h
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur BUY Panna Udvardy 70¢ $503 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2,582 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1,020 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $409 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $902 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $529 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $182 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 10d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur BUY Panna Udvardy 70¢ $101 10d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur BUY Panna Udvardy 70¢ $101 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $17 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1,012 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1,003 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1,004 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $214.32 · official $314.15 · 444 history records