Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:33:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2B 0x2b95…8bd8 crypto 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$141 (+8%) realized +$141 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate66%33W / 17L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$160
sports 5% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)+5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +17.0% +5.8% 66% 66% -2.7%
≤30d 50 +17.0% +5.8% 66% 66% -2.7%
≤90d 50 +17.0% +5.8% 66% 66% -2.7%
all 50 +17.0% +5.8% 66% 66% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.8% 66% -2.7%
10% -4.3% 54% -12.0%
15% -13.5% 48% -20.5%
20% -22.0% 34% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$35 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$141
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses33 / 17
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage4d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $52 +$48 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 27 $102 −$36 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 27 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 27 $106 −$36 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 27 $123 +$22 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $56 −$55 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 27 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 27 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 27 $53 +$272 +513%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 27 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $52 +$76 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$23 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 27 $41 +$19 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $30 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$22 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 27 $42 −$30 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$13 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$6 +62%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND Jun 27 $10 +$12 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$8 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $23 −$22 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $15 +$7 +44%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $23 −$23 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $13 +$10 +79%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $51 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $61 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $51 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $51 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $56 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $53 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $53 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $51 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $51 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $20 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.55 · official $97.55 (match) · 108 history records