Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:04:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2B 0x2b96…f02e other 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 199d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$294 (+4%) realized +$1,218 · open −$924
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%23W / 24L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days+$1,802
14 days+$2,176
30 days+$3,355
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$1,981
sports 32% +$1,244
politics 24% −$1,647
crypto 6% −$390
world 0% −$10
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +103.0% +83.6% 86% 86% +114.8%
≤30d 38 +6.1% -4.0% 58% 55% +59.7%
≤90d 38 +6.1% -4.0% 58% 55% +59.7%
all 47 -12.0% -20.4% 49% 45% +24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 45% +24.1%
10% -28.0% 45% +12.2%
15% -35.0% 36% +1.4%
20% -41.3% 30% -8.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +76% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +37% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -88% → late +61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$166 vs −$72 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.22 per $1 lost it wins $2.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

199d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized+$1,218
Unrealized−$924
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses23 / 24
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions3
Markets (closed)47 / 51
History coverage199d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $196 $191 −$4 (-2%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $835 $3 −$831 (-100%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 1¢ $90 $2 −$88 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $105 +$95 +90%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $103 −$102 -99%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $103 +$157 +152%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $283 +$81 +28%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $309 +$566 +183%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 +$60 +60%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-1 Jun 19 $307 +$946 +308%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $105 +$95 +90%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $101 +$95 +94%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $11 +$11 +109%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$8 +73%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $11 +$4 +42%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $11 +$2 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$98 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $11 −$10 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $11 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $102 −$100 -99%
Will Uzbekistan win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $6 −$6 -97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $1,999 +$1,405 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Feb 26 $81 −$80 -98%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026? Feb 26 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Feb 26 $203 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Feb 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Feb 26 $718 −$718 -100%
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Feb 26 $16 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro again by December 15? Dec 09 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro again by December 31? Dec 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 22¢ $199 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-2 BUY 27¢ $57 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $103 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $105 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $364 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $183 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $27 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $27 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $500 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $30 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $9 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $30 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $12 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $12 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $14 6d
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 60¢ $196 7d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $102 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-1 BUY 24¢ $307 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.63 · official $196.63 (match) · 120 history records