Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:53:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b99…57af politics 32 markets active 5h ago coverage 325d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%10W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$1
other 29% $0
politics 22% −$1
economics 8% +$1
tech 5% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.3% -9.3% 38% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 12 +0.4% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 12 +0.4% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.2%
all 32 -1.5% -10.9% 31% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 0% -9.4%
10% -19.4% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

325d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses10 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage325d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $38 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $33 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $33 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $33 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $33 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $22 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $24 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $32 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Aug 22 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 12 $47 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 12 $4 $0 -4%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Jarlath Burns win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 10 $52 $0 -0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be less than 1.5%? Aug 10 $53 +$1 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 31 $15 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 31 $16 $0 +0%
Will Romania's court annul the presidential election? Jul 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 30 $57 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 30 $57 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 29 $63 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 29 $63 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $34 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $33 14h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $37 16h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $37 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $36 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $36 24h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $33 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $33 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $9 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $27 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $36 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 25¢ $33 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 25¢ $33 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $33 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $33 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $0 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $32 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $33 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $32 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $22 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $22 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $24 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 33¢ $11 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 33¢ $13 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 98¢ $32 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 97¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 155 history records