Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:17:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b99…ba3b crypto 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 520d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate76%53W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% +$5
other 8% $0
tech 7% $0
sports 1% −$6
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 15 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 19 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 70 -0.5% -10.0% 76% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 1% -9.5%
10% -18.6% 1% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 1% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

520d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses53 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage520d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $113 $113 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $112 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $111 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in May 2026? Jun 02 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 30? May 31 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? May 28 $111 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 18-24? May 25 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 6? Apr 10 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 26? Mar 30 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 20? Mar 25 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 19? Mar 19 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? Mar 11 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 9? Mar 09 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 4? Mar 04 $110 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) finish week of February 23 above $670? Mar 01 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 2 Feb 27 $110 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $315 on February 26? Feb 27 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 26? Feb 26 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 24? Feb 24 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 20? Feb 23 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 19? Feb 19 $109 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $315 on February 17? Feb 18 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 17? Feb 17 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 16? Feb 16 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 15? Feb 15 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 14? Feb 14 $109 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 on February 12? Feb 12 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 12? Feb 12 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 11? Feb 11 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 10? Feb 10 $108 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in July? Aug 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 02 $1 $0 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 31 $2 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? May 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.35 in April? May 08 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 08 $4 $0 +0%
Elon out of Trump administration before July? Apr 24 $2 $0 -2%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in March? Apr 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in March? Apr 05 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $113 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $113 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $112 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $112 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $112 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $47 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $65 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $112 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $112 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $112 16d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $112 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $112 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $111 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $111 23d
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $111 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $111 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $111 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $111 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $111 82d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $111 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $111 92d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $111 99d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $110 100d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? BUY No 100¢ $110 108d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 9? BUY No 100¢ $110 110d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 7? BUY No 100¢ $110 112d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 4? BUY No 100¢ $110 115d
Will Meta (META) finish week of February 23 above $670? BUY No 100¢ $110 118d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 2 BUY No 100¢ $110 119d
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $315 on February 26? BUY No 100¢ $110 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.71 · official $112.71 (match) · 155 history records