Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:40:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b9d…fa43 crypto 299 markets active 4h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%131W / 168L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day21.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days+$17
14 days+$85
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$24
other 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 -3.0% -12.2% 42% 41% -7.6%
≤30d 299 -0.2% -9.7% 44% 43% -10.4%
≤90d 299 -0.2% -9.7% 44% 43% -10.4%
all 299 -0.2% -9.7% 44% 43% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 43% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 42% -19.0%
15% -26.2% 41% -26.8%
20% -33.5% 39% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses131 / 168
Open positions0
Markets (closed)299 / 299
History coverage19d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day21.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 299 Trades
no open positions (153 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$5 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$6 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$3 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$4 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$7 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$7 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$7 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$7 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$7 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$7 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$7 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$7 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$7 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$25 +212%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $13 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $7 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 550 history records