Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:55:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2B 0x2b9d…adc0 politics 243 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 108d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$23,950 (+10%) realized +$21,913 · open +$2,037
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate50%107W / 107L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$978per market
Trades / day30.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$43,617now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,418
7 days+$15,629
14 days+$15,257
30 days+$26,478
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 62% +$25,434
world 21% +$6,287
other 6% +$2,340
tech 4% −$1,339
finance 4% +$289
culture 2% −$1,224
crypto 1% +$144
sports 0% +$194
economics 0% −$176
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +76.4% +59.6% 64% 64% +59.6%
≤30d 44 +19.8% +8.4% 48% 41% +43.2%
≤90d 172 +5.4% -4.6% 55% 39% +14.1%
all 214 -0.6% -10.0% 50% 35% +9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 35% +9.4%
10% -18.6% 27% -1.0%
15% ← realistic here -26.5% 24% -10.6%
20% -33.7% 19% -19.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +21% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$927) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$563 vs −$283 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$43,617
Realized+$21,913
Unrealized+$2,037
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses107 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions29
Markets (closed)214 / 243
History coverage108d ⚠
Avg bet$978
Trades / day30.8
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 214 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 85¢ 99¢ $5,405 $6,271 +$866 (+16%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 62¢ 96¢ $3,717 $5,743 +$2,026 (+55%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? Yes 45¢ 56¢ $4,250 $5,266 +$1,016 (+24%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 80¢ 81¢ $4,425 $4,481 +$55 (+1%)
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? No 48¢ 57¢ $3,328 $3,987 +$659 (+20%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? No 40¢ 56¢ $2,479 $3,439 +$961 (+39%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 37¢ 86¢ $1,452 $3,356 +$1,904 (+131%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 94¢ 97¢ $3,074 $3,172 +$99 (+3%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 5–10%? Yes 79¢ 96¢ $2,427 $2,949 +$521 (+21%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 73¢ 99¢ $1,258 $1,711 +$454 (+36%)
Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be between 100,000 and 110,000 voters? Yes 66¢ 99¢ $593 $891 +$298 (+50%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $911 $514 −$397 (-44%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? No 88¢ 100¢ $420 $473 +$53 (+13%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 11¢ 5¢ $696 $336 −$360 (-52%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 3¢ $1,073 $203 −$870 (-81%)
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 38¢ 24¢ $309 $188 −$120 (-39%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 52¢ 3¢ $2,511 $164 −$2,348 (-93%)
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 16¢ 7¢ $336 $147 −$189 (-56%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $636 $133 −$503 (-79%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 0–5%? Yes 19¢ 2¢ $663 $76 −$587 (-88%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%? Yes 35¢ 42¢ $46 $54 +$9 (+19%)
Will Spencer Pratt call for 1st round recount? No 68¢ 86¢ $27 $34 +$7 (+26%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 10–15%? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $73 $17 −$56 (-77%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $103 $3 −$101 (-97%)
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $89 $3 −$87 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the South Carolina Republica Jun 21 $634 +$133 +21%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? Jun 21 $734 +$1,285 +175%
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary electio Jun 19 $3,926 +$3,497 +89%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3,250 −$814 -25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 18 $2,266 −$2,156 -95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? Jun 18 $2,262 −$2,262 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? Jun 18 $287 −$287 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1,705 +$9,111 +534%
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Jun 17 $2,533 +$4,127 +163%
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele Jun 17 $542 +$349 +64%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $2,317 +$2,647 +114%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 14 $629 +$257 +41%
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 10 $1,023 −$197 -19%
Will Shenna Bellows win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 10 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Alan Wilson win the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Govern Jun 10 $459 −$329 -72%
Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary elect Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 08 $1,378 −$80 -6%
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election Jun 04 $112 +$2 +1%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $1,687 +$3,224 +191%
Will Toby Doeden and Dusty Johnson advance to the South Dakota Governo Jun 04 $26 +$24 +96%
Will Kim Kwan-young win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 04 $565 +$1,048 +186%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 04 $2,393 +$1,140 +48%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 04 $2,349 +$2,803 +119%
Will Lee Won-taek win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Election Jun 04 $1,069 +$3,181 +298%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $1,401 +$2,109 +151%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%? Jun 03 $1,333 −$1,321 -99%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 03 $166 −$161 -97%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $442 −$121 -27%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $738 −$451 -61%
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary ele Jun 02 $323 −$313 -97%
Will Doug Turner win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary e Jun 02 $457 −$443 -97%
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 01 $359 +$421 +117%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 01 $1,893 −$67 -4%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 01 $954 +$2,792 +293%
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A May 28 $17 −$16 -96%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A May 28 $50 −$48 -96%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $824 −$1 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $840 −$840 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $604 −$604 -100%
Iran leadership change by December 31? May 25 $688 +$2 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 25 $1,408 +$212 +15%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $908 −$908 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw May 23 $813 +$29 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 23 $474 −$474 -100%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $276 +$257 +93%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $696 +$269 +39%
Will Burt Jones finish first in the first round of the 2026 Georgia Go May 19 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $2,428 +$1,137 +47%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 17 $380 −$380 -100%
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elec May 17 $730 +$57 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $416 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $19 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 1h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL Yes 59¢ $965 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 57¢ $1 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 57¢ $17 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 57¢ $84 2h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $101 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 57¢ $3 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 57¢ $1 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 57¢ $0 2h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL Yes 58¢ $12 2h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $23 2h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,920 2h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $0 2h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $110 2h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $21 2h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $705 3h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $101 3h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $101 3h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $101 3h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $22 3h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $101 3h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $101 3h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $22 3h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $101 3h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $101 3h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $101 3h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $23 3h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $23 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43,616.58 · official $43,537.86 (match) · 3500 history records