Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:45:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b9d…74f5 sports 152 markets active 5h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$29,053 (-10%) realized −$24,761 · open −$4,292
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate38%40W / 64L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,832per market
Trades / day31.3pace
Fees−$233est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$42,747now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,032
7 days−$35,828
14 days−$35,577
30 days−$28,249
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% +$714
other 16% −$12,089
world 13% +$735
culture 8% −$20,900
sports 7% +$124
tech 3% +$1,621
economics 2% −$3,714
weather 0% +$306
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-38.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -72.2% -74.9% 14% 9% -45.2%
≤30d 90 -38.4% -44.2% 34% 23% -22.4%
≤90d 104 -32.2% -38.6% 38% 26% -21.9%
all 104 -32.2% -38.6% 38% 26% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.6% 26% -21.9%
10% -44.5% 16% -29.3%
15% ← realistic here -49.9% 9% -36.2%
20% -54.8% 7% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$1,573) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late -76% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$423 vs −$727 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$42,747
Realized−$24,761
Unrealized−$4,292
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses40 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$233
Open positions48
Markets (closed)104 / 152
History coverage51d
Avg bet$1,832
Trades / day31.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 56¢ 44¢ $12,390 $9,587 −$2,803 (-23%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 75¢ $4,500 $6,790 +$2,290 (+51%)
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? No 88¢ 89¢ $6,154 $6,175 +$21 (+0%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 41¢ 44¢ $2,936 $3,083 +$147 (+5%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 50¢ 56¢ $2,495 $2,770 +$274 (+11%)
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 13¢ 85¢ $357 $2,386 +$2,028 (+567%)
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? No 63¢ 86¢ $1,640 $2,227 +$587 (+36%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 25¢ $4,500 $2,210 −$2,290 (-51%)
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? No 73¢ 58¢ $1,769 $1,408 −$361 (-20%)
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? No 70¢ 94¢ $587 $788 +$202 (+34%)
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 84¢ 93¢ $692 $765 +$73 (+11%)
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? No 79¢ 80¢ $552 $559 +$7 (+1%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 23¢ 25¢ $397 $441 +$44 (+11%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 24¢ 34¢ $288 $414 +$126 (+44%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 75¢ 74¢ $339 $334 −$5 (-1%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 66¢ $282 $311 +$28 (+10%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $283 $303 +$20 (+7%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 63¢ 84¢ $224 $297 +$73 (+33%)
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in June? Yes 57¢ 92¢ $152 $247 +$95 (+62%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 35¢ 36¢ $226 $229 +$3 (+2%)
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $233 $205 −$28 (-12%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 58¢ $164 $172 +$8 (+5%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 66¢ 69¢ $160 $167 +$8 (+5%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1,687 $142 −$1,545 (-92%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 8¢ 8¢ $150 $141 −$9 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $2,766 +$641 +23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $20,236 +$2,704 +13%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $555 −$44 -8%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 16 $2 $0 +17%
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 15 $274 −$269 -98%
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $43 −$1 -3%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 14 $2,349 +$35 +2%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $709 −$692 -98%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $12,588 +$874 +7%
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in May? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Meta’s Q1 headcount be above 78000? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners Jun 11 $56 −$26 -46%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in April? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in April? Jun 11 $33 −$33 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 11 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Australia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
T20 Series Germany vs Austria: Germany vs Austria Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Mike Thurmond win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary el Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-Jun Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i Jun 11 $30 −$15 -51%
Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listene Jun 11 $283 −$250 -88%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jun 11 $793 +$112 +14%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.5% in April? Jun 11 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? Jun 11 $1,952 −$20 -1%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 11 $123 −$123 -100%
Will "Running Point: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? Jun 11 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Michelle Milthorpe win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in Jun 11 $417 −$417 -100%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 11 $122 −$122 -100%
Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Au Jun 11 $485 −$485 -100%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 11 $1,017 −$929 -91%
Will Rhoda Magbitang win Top Chef Season 23? Jun 11 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 11 $626 −$626 -100%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 11 $608 −$608 -100%
Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listene Jun 11 $603 −$603 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Thunder vs. Lakers Jun 11 $216 −$216 -100%
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? Jun 11 $2,334 −$1,146 -49%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 11 $4,313 −$3,109 -72%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jun 11 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners Jun 11 $1,114 −$1,114 -100%
Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50? Jun 11 $1,573 −$1,573 -100%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Jun 11 $9,408 −$9,408 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $58 5h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $425 5h
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? BUY No 6¢ $1 5h
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? BUY No 7¢ $2 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $620 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $27 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $63 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 14h
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? BUY No 79¢ $15 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42,747.07 · official $42,748.63 (match) · 1811 history records